Port Vale VS Barnsley

Port Vale welcome Barnsley for this EFL Cup 1/16-finals clash at Vale Park in Stoke on Trent early Thursday morning Beijing time. I think the betting market has the wrong favorite here. In my view Barnsley should be narrow favorites which means that with the recommended +1 handicap - a draw would be enough - on them my fans and me have an approximately 69% chance of winning the bet. Both sides are likely to want to prioritize their league campaigns, there should be some rotation, with some younger, promising players given opportunities to prove their skills. This make is hard to give an exact probability estimation. Even so, Barnsley have more depth in the squad – more quality players to choose from. I do expect both teams to be motivated here though. Both teams play in League One, the third tier of English football. Barnsley were relegated from Championship after a bad last season but should a strong candidate to be promoted back to this league. They have started the season in a strong way but surely have potential for improvement. They currently occupy the 6th place in the standings with 30 points in the pocket. In terms of expected points they would have deserved 34 points.

I have Barnsley in the 4th place in my power rating that illustrates the teams' pure class. Their defense has been excellent so far this season and they have allowed just 15 goals so far in League One. This is the lowest number in this league. Their defensive structure is very solid and even if their manager fields younger defenders I expect them do well! In this area of the game they have a substantial edge over Port Vale who have a pretty leaky defense – they have conceded 28 goals in League One. They do have some scoring potential though as they have netetd the ball 21 times. They have taken 26 points so far which is more than I would have expcted based on my in-depth pre-season analysis. They were promoted from League Two for this season and are much smaller club than Barnsley in terms of players' total market value and financial resources. Their xPTS is just 21 points and I expect them to drop down in the standings from the current 10th place as the season progresses. Let's also remmeber that Barnsley are in much better form than the hosts. The visitors have won four games in a row and have looked better than early season on the pitch!