Lechia Gdansk VS Gornik Zabrze

Lechis Gdansk welcome Gornik Zabre for this Polish Extraklasa battle at Polsat Plus Arena in Gdańsk early Saturday morning Beijing time. Both teams have played 16 matches in this league of mediocre level by European standards. The biggest and sharpest bookies with the largest betting limits see Gornik Zabre only as narrow favorites here. In my opinion they should be much more clear favorites than the current odds on the betting market suggest. I see the visitors having a 45% chance of traveling home with all three points in the pocket. However, as draw would be enough for my fans and I have a 74% chance of winning for the 4th time in a row! They are better than the hosts in all areas of the game and have the potential for even better performances. The biggest difference in the visitors' favor is in offense. Indeed, they have scored 25 goals – the hosts have netted the ball just 16 times so far. Gornik Zabres's strikers and midfielders are much more skilled than those of the hosts and the visitors' offensive structure is also much better. The home advantage needs to be taken into account here – of course - but they do not have the best home fans and they have been the worst team in Ekstraklasa so far this season. Indeed, they have won just one if the seven games at Polsat Plus Arena. Moreover, their score difference at home is also abysmal – 4:12.

The host are currently in 16th place in this league with a total of 18 teams and have just 14 points to their account - major disappointment and according to sources their team spirit is far from optimal. I have recently significantly lowered their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Last season they were much better than this season and even took more points than Gornik Zabre and bookies clearly fail to realize how much their level has come down.. They have lost two of their latest matches in this league. Their coach has a lot of work to do especially defensively if they want to avoid relegation! Their defensive structure is not great and their defenders make way too many silly individual mistakes. Indeed, they have conceded the highest number of goals in this league – 29. In terms of expected points they would have deserved just 12 points. As for the visitors they have grabbed 20 points but would have deserved 24 points! They were very unlucky in their most recent match as they lost to Legnica 0-3 at home despite 70% ball possession. I guess this surprising result affects the odds here too much.. Gornik Zabre recorded more scoring attempts, shots on target, attacks and dangerous attacks and much more total passes (658-277) and completed passes (552-186).