Estrela VS Vilafranquense

Estrela welcome Vilafranquense at MCH Arena Estádio José Gomes in Amadora ror this Liga Portugal 2 round 11 clash early Tuesday Beijing time. This league is of pretty low level by European standards. The difference to first tier is massive. The biggest, sharpest bookies with the largest stake limits estimate that the hosts are the favorites here. I cannot agree with this. Indeed, I see the visitors as narrow favorites and with the handicap on the visitors we have a very good chance of winning.. The hosts currently occupy the 10th place with 15 points to their account. Their goal difference is 14:12. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved just 12 points. Moreover, in terms of expected goals (xG)the number they would have deserved is 11. I rate them only as the 15th best team in this league in my power ratings that illustrate the teams' pure class. Last season they finished in the 14th with 37 points in the pocket and had a pretty bad goal difference of 42:55. I expect them to conceded more goals per match as the season progresses than they have so far this season.

As for the visitors the situation in terms of xPTS and xG very different: They have grabbed three less and scored four less than they would have deserved! This seems to have led to under-valuation on the betting market.. They are currently in the 8th place in the league table but I only rate them as the 7th best team in this league. Last season they ended up in the 12th place with a total of 41 points. Not that much has changed from last season. The visitors are the better team, especially in terms of offensive quality. They were unlucky for example in their most recent match against Academico Viseu losing 1-3. They had 55% ball possession and also recorded more goal attempts (15-9), as well as more shots on goal, attacks and dangerous attacks.According to a well-known and respected German website Transfermarkt.com the hosts’ squad is valued at just 3.65 million euros. The visitors’ players have a total market value of 4.73 million.The market values can, of course, be misleading, but the bookies and many professional football bettors pay more and more attention to these numbers.. The football (players) market is, after all, a global one. However, if two players are equally good and one of them is 23 years old and the other is 33 years old the younger guy, of course, has a much bigger market value. In my view the 4.73 million is too low! At least four players are under-valued. Estrela are, in my view, weaker on the pitch than the 3.65 million would indicate.. At least three players are, in reality, not worth their listed market value.