Slovan Bratislava VS Pyunik yerevan

Slovan Bratislava host Pyunik Yerevan for this UEFA Conference League round 5 clash at Tehelné pole early Friday morning Beijing time. A total of six rounds will be played. The hosts are a Slovakian team - the visitors come from Armenia.The situation is very interesting in this group as Basel top the standings with seven points, Yerevan have six points and a goal difference of 6:5, Bratislava are third and Zalgris have taken four points so far. Indeed, all teams still have a chance to qualify for the play offs. Despite the fact that the visitors have taken one point more so far the hosts are surely the better team here by raw class. My point here is that the difference is surely smaller than the betting market thinks.. A draw would be a good result for Yerevan here and I expect them to choose a very defensive, even cautious strategy here. The goal expectancy here is smaller than the betting market thinks.. Indeed, as all we need is the visitors to avoid losing by one goal's difference the chance of winning with the recommended +1.5 goals handicap is high – 69%. the chance of the hosts winning the game is in my opinion 58% - much lower than the betting market estimates.

Let's not forget that Yerevan beat Bratislava in Armenia six weeks ago 2-0 against a very solid defensive performance. Overall the match was quite balanced – the visitors being slightly better as a whole in my opinion though. Nevertheless, it was became clear that Bratislava are not too much better than Yerevan who are once again massively under-valued by the bookies here! In July they even qualified over a tough Romanian team Cluj in the Champions League qualification despite not being give much chance by the bookies. They have not had the best season in Armenian Premier League but would have deserved several more points than the actual 21 in terms of expected points! They most be super-motivated here as qualifying for the play offs would be a stunning achievement for an Armenian team and would bring them a lot of UEFA prize money! Let's not forget that Bratislava even failed to beat Zalgris at home – it was a goalless draw. Zalgris are definitely the worst team in this group. Very disappointing from the hosts to say the least.