Longford Town VS Galway United

Longford and Galway lock horns in this Ireland Divivision 1 play offs semi-finals first leg at Bishopsgate early Thursday morning Beijing time. The this is a very low-level league by European standards, even worse than my home country's Finland's second tier, Veikkausliiga. For entertainment I would recommend watching Champions League.. Nevertheless, I think we have a lucrative betting chance here! The biggest, sharpest bookies with the biggest limits see the visitors here as favorites. I must disagree and rate the host as favorites with today's expected lineups. This is a high-stakes battle as the teams fight for promotion to the Premier Division for next season. This is not a low-scoring league on average but here in the first leg I expect both teams to play more defensive, even cautious football than in a normal regular season game. If the score is level in the second half neither team will probable take big risks trying to score the winning goal.. In my view the goal expectancy here is lower than the betting market thinks - 2.48 is my estimation. The draw - with a probability of 30% - would be enough for my fans and me to win yet another pick on Irish football! This is a big game for the home crowd and suspect the betting market has not given enough emphasis on this factor. Longford do have good fans by Division 1 standards to boost them!

Galway did finish higher in the standings – in third place with 60 points and a goal difference of 56:29. Longford, on the other hand, took fourth place with 52 points to their account and a goal difference of 49:41. Galway grabbed four more points than they would have deserved in terms of expected goals(xPTS) - Longford, on the other hand were unlucky in terms of xPTS. By pure class – taking into account all the potential the teams have I do rate Galway slightly better but taking into account the fact that Galway have been in much better form and looking more confident on the pitch I think the teams are equal going into this match and it is the home advantage that makes the hosts the favorites here. In terms of offense I see the teams equally good but defensively the visitors unarguably have a small edge though, especially in terms of defenders individual skill level. The visitors have won just one of their latest 10 matches and are clearly low in confidence at the moment, especially their offense lacks creativity and they often make it too easy for the opponent to defend successfully. According to my sources their team spirit is far from optimal..The two teams locked horns five days ago and it was a 3-3 draw at Terryland Park after an entertaining and open game. In this match Longford proved they they can break Galway's pretty good defense. Longford have lost just two of their latest matches and easily swept past Cobh Ramblers in a match before the Galway game winning 4-2 away from home after a fine performance on the 7th of this month.