In my opinion Derby have really good chances to make good result in today's match up. I see 3 good reasons to go with Derby here.

1. Derby currently have extremely solid record at home against Nottingham - they lost only one of last 9 home matches against them.

2. Derby is still without two important midfielder Lawrence and Bielik, as well without important defender Davies, but is still not that big deal. Anyway, Nottingham squad problems looks more serious - they are without important defender McKenna, important striker Grabban, two important midfielders Sow and Arter and without key midfielder Ameobi..

3. Derby is in better form at the moment - they won 3 of last 4 matches, in every win they scored more than one goal. They lost 1:2 against top5 Watford on away, but they didn't looked bad at all: expected goals scored for Derby 0.93, for Watford 0.86. They were unlucky there. Nottingham won last two matches in a row with the same scoreline (1:0, against Blackburn at home and against Rotherham on away), but I wasn't convinced by these performances. Very close matches which might goes both ways. Nottingham as well is not so creative as Derby is at the moment - they scored only 2 goals in last 4 games (injuries list for sure have impact on it).

All in all, I don't see this match up so close. Derby deserves to be a bigger favorite here. HC0 asian line looks like a good value bet.

在我看来，德比郡有很好的机会在今天的比赛中取得好成绩。我认为有3个理由支持德比。

1. 德比郡目前在主场对阵诺丁汉有非常稳定的记录——他们在最近9场主场对阵他们的比赛中只输了一场。

2. 德比郡仍然缺少两名重要的中场球员劳伦斯和比利克，以及重要的后卫戴维斯，但这仍然不是什么大事。不管怎样，诺丁汉队的问题看起来更严重了——他们没有重要的后卫麦肯纳，重要的前锋格拉班，两个重要的中场索和阿特，没有关键中场阿梅奥比。

3.德比郡现在的状态更好，他们赢了过去4场比赛中的3场，每一场比赛他们都进了一个以上的球。他们在客场1:2输给了排名前五的沃特福德，但他们看起来一点也不差:德比的预期进球为0.93，沃特福德为0.86。他们在那里很不幸。诺丁汉以同样的比分赢得了最后两场比赛(1:0，主场对阵布莱克本，客场对阵罗瑟汉姆)，但我不相信他们的表现。双方在场上势均力敌。诺丁汉也没有德比那么有创造力——他们在过去4场比赛中只进了2球(伤病名单肯定会对他们有影响)。

总而言之，我不认为这是一场如此接近的比赛。德比郡在这里更受欢迎。看好德比郡不败。