In my opinion Fortaleza have much bigger chances to make at least one point in today's match up than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

Odds on Fortaleza slashed down by 0.30 in last couple of hours on big Asian markets with the highest possible limits and I fully agree with this trend.

Fortaleza played excellent in previous season, but now they have big problems as they are in relegation zone and they have to give absolutely everything till end of the season to avoid relegation. For sure team have much bigger potential than such low position in league table. What is even more interesting - according to the expected goals scored/conceded models Fortaleza should be on 5th place(!!!). They missed so many big chances to score and they also conceded many goals from low % situations. At home they played 8 matches so far, they scored 4 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 12.89 (!!!). They looked solid at the back as they conceded 6 goals (6.62 expected goals conceded).

Obviously, Palmeiras is fav here, they are leaders of the table, but on away they recorded better results than they really should (7 matches without a loss). In those matches they conceded only 4 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 9.08 (!). It's huge difference.

Fortaleza for sure will fight like crazy to avoid loss in this game and they have enough quality to do it. They have also good mental advantage as they won 3 of last 4 matches against Palmeiras. I see excellent value on their side.

在我看来，福塔莱萨在今天的比赛中至少获得一分的机会比机构想要为我们建议的指数要大得多。 在过去几个小时内，在亚洲大市场上，福塔莱萨的指数下降了 0.30，而且限额最高，我完全同意这一趋势。

福塔莱萨在上个赛季打得非常出色，但现在他们在降级区遇到了很大的问题，他们必须全力以赴，直到赛季结束才能保级。可以肯定的是，这支球队的潜力要比在积分榜上如此低的位置大得多。更有趣的是 - 根据预期的进球/失球模型，福塔莱萨应该排在第 5 位（！！！）。他们错过了很多重要的得分机会，也丢了很多球。到目前为止，他们在主场打了8场比赛，打进4球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该打进12.89（！！！）。他们丢了6个球，后防看起来很稳固（6.62 个预期失球）。

显然，帕尔梅拉斯在这里是更受欢迎的，他们是积分榜的领头羊，但在客场比赛中，他们取得了比他们真正应该得到的更好的成绩（7 场比赛没有输球）。在那些比赛中，他们只丢了 4 个球，但根据预期丢球模型，他们应该丢 9.08 个球（！）。这是巨大的差异。

福塔莱萨肯定会疯狂地战斗以避免在这场比赛中失利，他们有足够的实力做到这一点。他们也有很好的心理优势，因为他们在最近 4 场对阵帕尔梅拉斯的比赛中赢了 3 场。我认为本场他们的价值很高。