In my opinion Juventude have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Hosts have big advantage before this game in scheduling. Juventude last match played 6 days ago when they recorded 0:0 on away against Sao Paulo. On the other hand Atletico had very challenging period - for them it is fourth match in 9 days. Just 3 days ago Atletico played on away in Ecuador at Copa Libertadores. For sure team feel tiredness and we can expect rotation in squad, that should have bad impact on their quality.

Juventude home record in current season doesn't look good (5 points in 7 matches), but they played much better than their results and without any shadow of doubt they deserved for more points. Juventude scored 6 goals in home matches in current season, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 10.72(!). They conceded 12 goals in home matches so far, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 8.92. It's big difference at both ends of the pitch. Juventude is solid home team as they didn't lost in 18 of last 26 home matches in Serie A.

Atletico in current season won only one away match so far. In those circumstances for me is hard to see them as a so big favorite of today's match up. For sure value is on home side here.

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在我看来，尤文图德有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少取得一分。

在本场比赛之前，东道主在赛程安排上有很大的优势。尤文图斯德上一场比赛是在6天前，他们客场对阵圣保罗时0:0。另一方面，马竞经历了一段非常具有挑战性的时期——对他们来说，这是9天内的第四场比赛。就在3天前，马竞还在厄瓜多尔参加了解放者杯。当然球队感到疲劳，我们可以期待轮换阵容，这应该会对他们的质量产生不好的影响。

尤文图德本赛季的主场记录看起来并不好(7场5分)，但他们的表现比他们的成绩要好得多，毫无疑问他们应该得到更多的分。本赛季尤文图德在主场打进6球，但按照预期进球模型，他们应该打进10.72球!到目前为止，他们在主场丢了12球，但根据预期丢球模型，他们应该丢8.92球。在球场的两端有很大的不同。尤文图德是一支稳固的主队，他们在意甲最近26场主场比赛中18场未输。

目前为止，马竞在本赛季只赢了一场客场比赛。在这种情况下，我很难把他们看作是今天比赛中最受欢迎的球队。当然，这里的价值是在主场。