I’ve had a number of bets against Lazio this season, slamming Mauricio Sarri in all of those previews, calling him overrated and bound to fail in Rome. I still stand by most of the claims made, however, every team has its price and on Saturday evening, in my opinion, there is a fair share on the home side.

Lazio has been in really good form since elimination from Europa League (lost to Porto over 2 legs). Evidently they’ve been benefiting from having full focus on Serie A and working in a 1 match per week rhythm.

Sarri’s team only had one local flop in the derby against city rivals AS Roma (0-3), but such games should be left outside the brackets as far as analysis is concerned. Elsewhere Lazio had crushed relegation bound yet tricky opponents (on the road!) like Genoa (4-1) and Cagliari (3-0), took a narrow home win against another bottom of the league side Venezia and even found a way to outscore Sassuolo (2-1).

Now the team is set to compete for a Europa League spot with AS Roma and Fiorentina. Somewhere deep inside I am sure Sarri still relishes hopes of catching up Juventus and taking the 4th spot, which, of course, looks absolutely unrealistic to me yet mathematically possible.

Bottom line, Lazio is in good form these days, they have 0 squad problems (Pedro injury aside) and they are full of motivation.

Their opponent is absolutely the opposite. Torino is stuck in the centre of the table with no clear reasons to keep on pushing in the current campaign. They still remain a difficult opponent to face, but this is mostly the case on home soil where the team takes an extra bit of missing motivation from their fans.

It feels Torino has absolutely forgotten how to win too - since mid-January they’ve picked up only 1 (!) victory, which came on the road in the level game against bottom of the league Salernitana (1-0). Otherwise it’s been mainly pain and suffering - low scoring draws or narrow defeats.

To justify my point about missing motivation on the road for Torino - they lost to 10-men (since the 24th minute)Genoa during their last away match in Serie A (0-1).

I find the offer on Lazio win attractive enough on the odds around 1.65

It will be no walk in the park, but the premise is clear to me - there is only one team truly interested in 3 points.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

这个赛季我已经赌了很多次拉齐奥输了，在所有的预演中我抨击毛里西奥·萨里，说他被高估了，注定会在罗马失败。我仍然坚持大多数的说法，然而，每个球队都有自己的价格，在我看来，周六晚上主场的价格是公平的。

拉齐奥在欧联杯被淘汰(两回合输给波尔图)后状态非常好。很明显，他们已经从专注于意甲和每周一场比赛的节奏中受益。

萨里的球队在德比中只在本地遭遇了一场败北，对手是罗马(0-3)，但这样的比赛应该被排除在分析之外。此外，拉齐奥还在客场击败了热那亚(4-1)和卡利亚里(3-0)等难以对付的保级对手，并在主场险胜联赛垫底的另一支球队威尼斯队，甚至还以2-1的比分击败了萨索洛。

现在，这支球队将与罗马和佛罗伦萨争夺欧罗巴联赛的席位。在我的内心深处，我确信萨里仍然对追上尤文图斯并获得第四名抱有希望，当然，这在我看来是绝对不现实的，但在数学上是可能的。

最重要的是，拉齐奥这几天状态很好，他们没有任何问题(佩德罗受伤除外)，他们充满了动力。

他们的对手完全相反。都灵被困在积分榜的中心位置，没有明确的理由在当前的比赛中继续前进。他们仍然是一个难以对付的对手，但这主要是在本土的情况下，这支球队需要从他们的球迷那里获得额外的动力。

感觉都灵已经完全忘记了如何赢球——自从一月中旬以来，他们只获得了一场(!)胜利，那是在客场对阵联赛垫底的萨勒尼塔纳(1-0)时取得的。除此之外，它主要是痛苦和折磨——低比分平局或险胜。

为了证明我关于都灵在客场失去动力的观点——他们在意甲最后一场客场比赛(0-1)输给了10人(从第24分钟开始)热那亚。

我发现拉齐奥获胜的报价有足够的吸引力，赔率在1.65左右

这不是在公园里散步，但前提对我来说很清楚——只有一支球队真正对3分感兴趣。