In my opinion Moreirense have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up. Odds are simply too high. This is strong value.

Moreirense have huge mental advantage before today's game as they didn't lost against Gil Vicente in last 8 consecutive matches! Moreirense didn't lost in last 4 matches at this stadium (3 wins in the process). In previous season they won here 2 :1.

Moreirense don't have any abscences so coach Ricardo Sa Pinto can use the strongest possible line up, on the other hand Gil Vicente is without key central midfielder Giorgi Aburjania (2 goals and 1 assist in 21 matches), important right winger Bilel Aouacheria ( 1 assist in 19 matches) and important left winger Murilo (2 goals and 1 assist in 14 matches).

Gil Vicente plays amazing season in their standards, they are in very comfortable situation - 6 rounds left and they are on 5th place, 7 points above Guimaraes. Big chances to finish inside top5 and to play in European Cups next season. It's the biggest surprise of the league and for sure is well above their potential - they finished last two seasons in bottom half of the table. For Gil Vicente is new situation and pressure can go under their players skin. They won only once in last 5 matches. If You look on the bigger picture - they are not so strong at home as they won only 9 of last 31 home league matches.

On the other hand Moreirense underperforming in current campaign. In last 3 seasons they were able to finish inside top8, now they are on the last place in the league table, but for sure they have quality and potential to avoid relegation. Moreirense plays better than their results shows, they conceded 45 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 39.7. They scored 24 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 28.9. According to the models they should be on 12th position at the moment.

Moreirense coach Sa Pinto said: "We want to win the three points in Gil, but we know how difficult it will be. We are believers, positive, united. Enough of so many less good things, it's time to be rewarded. Our team is not the best, but it is not the worst in this league. We have enough quality to stay in this league with merit, but the road will be tough. We think we don't deserve to be going through this situation, there's a revolt in the locker room."

I see bigger chances for guests than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds. Super value on away side in my eyes.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，莫瑞伦斯在今天的比赛中有很好的机会至少得一分。这种可能性实在太高了。这是很强的价值。

莫瑞伦斯在今天的比赛之前有巨大的心理优势，因为他们在过去的8场比赛中没有输给吉尔·维森特!莫瑞伦斯在最近的4场比赛中都没有输(3胜)。上个赛季他们以2比1赢了这里。

Moreirense没有任何的间隙，所以主教练里卡多·萨·平托可以使用最强的阵容，另一方面吉尔·维森特没有核心中场Giorgi Aburjania(21场比赛2球1助攻)，重要的右边锋奥瓦切里亚(19场比赛1次助攻)和重要的左边锋穆利洛(14场比赛2球1次助攻)。

吉尔·维森特以他们的标准打出了惊人的赛季成绩，他们处于非常舒适的状态——还剩6轮，他们排名第五，比吉马良斯高出7分。有很大的机会进入前五，并参加下赛季的欧洲杯。这是联盟中最大的惊喜，当然也远远超出了他们的潜力——他们上两个赛季都排在积分榜的下半名。对于吉尔-维森特来说，这是一个新的情况，压力会让他们的球员感到紧张。他们在最近的5场比赛中只赢了一场。如果你从更大的角度来看，他们在主场的表现并不强劲，因为他们在最近的31场主场比赛中只赢了9场。

另一方面，莫瑞伦斯在当前的竞选中表现不佳。在过去的3个赛季中，他们能够进入前8名，现在他们在联赛表的最后一名，但可以肯定的是，他们有质量和潜力避免降级。莫伦森队的表现比他们的表现要好，他们失球45个，但根据预期失球模型，他们应该失球39.7个。他们进了24球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该进28.9球。根据模型来看，他们现在应该在12位。

莫里伦斯教练萨·平托说:“我们想在吉尔身上赢得三分，但我们知道这有多难。我们相信，积极，团结。受够了这么多不那么美好的事情，是时候得到回报了。我们的球队不是最好的，但也不是联盟中最差的。我们有足够的实力留在这个联盟，但道路将是艰难的。我们认为我们不应该经历这种情况，更衣室里有反抗。”

我看到客人的机会比博彩公司给我们的赔率要大得多。在我眼里，客场的超值。