Marseille vs PAOK

Marseille from France host Greek Paok for this Europa Conference League clash at Stade Vélodrome early Friday morning Beijing time. I see the hosts as very clear favorites in this matchup -  and especially today at home as they are stronger than PAOK in all areas of the game, especially in terms of offensive creativity, structure and offensive players’ overall skill level. They have around 65% chance of winning the first leg and a good chance to cover the -1.5 goals handicap. To win the bet would require the hosts to win by at least 2 goals’ difference. The situation is different from a normal league match where the heavy favorite is somewhat surprisingly often happy with the one goal lead and does not any to risk the lead and aims at controlling the ball denying the weaker team’s hopes of scoring. We have seen this kind of strategy even from elite teams like Manchester City and Liverpool more and more often in recent years. However, Greece is not an easy place to play the second leg at and Marseille would surely like to take a clear win here! However, Greek teams do not often do well away from home. It has been like for this for at least 10 years already. French teams are very often strong at home and the home advantage is overall big in international club competitions.

Marseille have continuously fielded a strong team throughout their Europa Conference League run, and the coach Argebtinian Jorge Sampaoli should again deploy the majority of his stars. Some squad rotation is expected, but Marseille have a lot of quality in players that usually sit on the bench and the betting market seems to underestimate these "bench players" According to Transfermarket.com, a well-known German website, players’ total market value Marseille are much bigger team than the visitors the difference in class should become visible  on the pitch here..Marseille's  squad is over 4 times more valuable than PAOK’s! On average, a player’s market value illustrates his level on the pitch well! Younger, promising players, of course, have a higher market value than older ones if the players the players are at the same level. Say Karim Benzemais not nearly valuable as in terms of market value – despite his good level at pretty old age - as Dortmund’s Erling Haland.. We must also realize that the French Ligue 1 is the 5th best league in the world and is of much higher level than the Greek Super League which has been in decline for years and Greek clubs as well as their national team have not succeeded well for a long time. Marseille have now won 5 matches in a row in all competitions and are in the second place in Ligue 1 after dominant PSG. They will probably also finish second. They are playing a very strong season indeed. PAOK could easily have lost to Belgian Gent in the previous round after balanced matches.. Gent are also a smaller team than PAOK by players' total market value  - and also true class in my opinion. They would have to improve to challenge Marseille – or get lucky..