First of all, let's be clear. It's not a high confidence pick because we bet against Bayern, but it's a value bet where I do believe in coach Unai Emmery of Villareal to hold the German side on a draw, or in the worst case 1 goal loss. Emmery is a specialist in European matches. The recent form of Villareal in the league looks bad as they lost on the last two visits against Levante and Cadiz. Yes, I know it sounds very poor, especially because those are not the teams you would expect a quarterfinalist of the Champions League will lose without scoring a goal. However, Villareal is doing way better on the home field in La Liga where they have a 9-4-2 record, and are the best-attacking team amongst all other teams in LA Liga with 35 goals scored in 15 matches. They have scored more goals than Real Madrid, Barcelona and other sides at home! As you saw, they surprised Juventus in Turin with a 3-0 win that made them pass to the quarterfinals of the Champions League with the great tactical setup of coach Emmery. Normally, as you could see last night in Manchester, Atletico Madrid were ultra-defensive and was only focused on defending their goal, but Villareal will not be that antifootball as their approach is a little bit braver than Atletico's in such games.

Bayern is normally the side which I admit a lot, you could read it several times already in last and this seasons. But they are not as robots as Manchester City and Liverpool in my opinion. They can produce weird results with young coach Naggelsman, as we saw they lost to Borussia Gladbach 0-5 on away this season, also against Augsburg, as well to fail in Austria against the young side of Salzburg. Normally, they later demolished Salzburg at home 7-1 but we have here an away game, in Spain, against the team hungry for success in the European biggest stage. Also, it's worth not forgetting that Bundesliga is a lower quality competition than LA LIGA. Bayern doesn't have real competition in Bundesliga for years now, and this is sometimes what produces their problems, for their players to test against high profile sides more often. They know to negatively surprise their fans on away games as we talked about, and this one may be the one, even if their momentum is good with 8 goals scored in the last two games. But simply, we can't compare Freiburg and Union Berlin with the middle table sides of LA LIGA: Valencia, Celta Vigo or Atheltic Bilbao.

Villareal had success back in the 2000s when they played in the semifinals of the Champions League against Arsenal. Maybe that side was "stronger" than this one nowadays, but Villareal knows to play big games. They didn't lose to Real Madrid in two games this season, they didn't lose in two games vs Juventus, they hold Atletico to 2-2 two teams this season, and have only lost to Barca and Osasuna (really unlucky) here at Madrigal stadium, so this is one of my main cards for this pick. We also have a cover of a one-goal loss in case of Bayern victory. Anyway, Bayern knows too, that their true power lies on Allianz Arena at home, where they crush opponents with the pressure backed by the fan's support, and I give some chances for Villareal to stay undefeated tonight. At least Salzburg managed to do that, so why not even better side as Villareal is. I won't predict a result but think we could see a tight game if there is no early goals in the match. If Villareal hold Bayern in first half, think we will win the bet.

首先，让我们明确一点。这不是一个高信心的选择，但这是一个很有价值的选择，我相信比利亚雷亚尔的主教练乌奈·埃默里（Unai Emmery）会让德国队保持平局，甚至最坏的可能会输掉一球。埃梅里是欧洲比赛的专家。比利亚雷亚尔最近在联赛中的状态看起来很糟糕，因为他们在最近两次对阵莱万特和加的斯的比赛中都输了。是的，我知道这听起来很糟糕，特别是因为这不是我们所期望的欧冠四分之一决赛选手会输掉的球队。然而，比利亚雷亚尔在西甲主场的表现要好得多，他们的战绩为 9胜4平2负，并且是西甲所有其他球队中进攻最好的球队，在 15 场比赛中打进 35 球。他们在主场的进球数超过了皇马、巴萨等球队！如你所见，他们在都灵以 3-0 的比分让尤文图斯大吃一惊，并凭借出色的战术打进了欧冠八强。教练埃梅里的布置功不可没。通常情况下，正如你昨晚在曼彻斯特看到的那样，马德里竞技非常保守，只专注于守住他们的希望，但比利亚雷亚尔不会是那种足球风格，因为他们比马竞更勇敢。

拜仁通常是我很喜欢选择的一方，你可以在上个赛季和这个赛季看到好几遍。但在我看来，他们不像曼城和利物浦那样的球队。他们在年轻教练纳格尔斯曼的带领下出现了很多奇怪的结果，我们看到他们本赛季客场以 0-5 输给了门兴格拉德巴赫，对阵奥格斯堡，以及在奥地利对阵萨尔茨堡的年轻球队时失败。通常情况下，他们后来会在主场以 7-1 击败萨尔茨堡，但本场是在客场的比赛，在西班牙，对阵渴望在欧洲最大舞台上取得成功的球队。此外，值得一提的是，德甲联赛的实力低于西甲联赛。拜仁多年来在德甲没有真正的竞争，这有时会产生他们的问题，因为他们的球员更频繁地与高调的球队进行测试。正如我们所说，他们知道在客场比赛中会给球迷带来负面的惊喜，而这一场可能就是一场，即使他们的势头很好，在过去两场比赛中打进了 8 球。简单来说，我们无法将弗莱堡和柏林联合与西甲的中游球队进行比较：瓦伦西亚、塞尔塔维戈或毕尔巴鄂竞技。

比利亚雷亚尔在 2000 年的欧冠半决赛中对阵阿森纳时取得了成功。也许现在比当时“强大”，但比利亚雷亚尔知道要打踢重要的比赛。他们本赛季两场不败皇家马德里，两场对阵尤文图斯均不败，对阵马竞2-2打平，只输给巴萨和奥萨苏纳（倒霉），所以这是我选择比利亚雷的原因。如果拜仁获胜，应该只能赢一个球。无论如何，拜仁也知道，他们真正的力量在于主场安联球场，在那里他们得到球迷支持的压力碾压对手，本场我选择给比利亚雷亚尔机会，让支持们今晚保持不败。至少萨尔茨堡做到了这一点，所以比利亚雷亚尔也有机会更好。我们可能会看到一场紧张的比赛。如果比利亚雷亚尔在上半场控制拜仁，我们很可能会最终赢下投注。