CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Atletico Tucuman

CA San Lorenzo de Almagro host Atletico Tucuman for this Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional round clash at Estadio Pedro Bidegain in Buenos Aires. Contrary to many other matches I have posted picks on for this league, I see a more high-scoring battle than the betting market or most football analysts online. There are 2 main rationales behind this analysis. Firstly, the visitors' defense is abysmal, and I do not see them improving anytime soon, perhaps not during the whole season.. Another main rationale is the fact that the hosts have a much more dangerous attack than we have seen so far. They have scored just 5 goals so far in this league this season. They however have several talented, offensive players who have under-performed so far and will surely improve! They have also been unlucky in many matches in terms of expected goals. Indeed, they would have deserved at least a few more goals. They have a pretty solid defense though and have conceded 7 goals so far. That is a lot less than for example a good team Defensa Y Justicia, currently in the 4th place in the standings have allowed. San Lorenzo have grabbed 6 points so far and are in the 12th place.

We must remember that the hosts have faced pretty dangerous opponents lately. In their most recent match against a pretty good team Huracan they would have deserved a win but it was a goalless draw at home. They had 54% ball possession and created 13 shots on target. The visitors had just 6. Huracan also failed to record any shots on target. A very solid performance defensively. Before this they beat Talleres Cordoba 1-0 away from home after a balanced battle as clear underdogs. A fine performance indeed! Before this they fought well against the giants of Argentinian football, River Plate, losing 0-1 at home. They however, missed a penalty in the first half when the score was still 0-0.. The home advantage is substantial here – Atletico Tucuman have lost seven away games in a row  and have grabbed just 1 point from the latest 10 matches away from home! They are the rock bottom team with just 4 points at the moment. I have lowered their power rating from the pre-season analysis.The hosts are clearly bigger by financial resources and better on the pitch and are close to 60% favorites to win this match.