An early call here as I am afraid the odds could go down towards kick-off and, particularly, on the day of the match.

While I was backing PSG to take advantage of Monaco’s wobbly form 2 weeks ago, the Monegasque side proved my expectations wrong by pulling off one of the best displays in 2021/22. They were miles better than PSG in the 3-0 thrashing on March 20th and definitely took the positive vibes from that game into the short break.

Now with Europa League out of the way they can focus on pulling off a miracle and push closer towards Champions League zone - with 9 rounds left they still have a minor chance to achieve at least the 3rd spot. As there is little consistency in the top half of Ligue1 table, the scenario where Monaco pulls off a good sprint does not look impossible.

The international break should not have had as great of an impact on the squad as it could have in autumn/winter of 2021 when the National teams were fighting for qualification. During these two weeks the vast majority of leading European sides had casual friendlies.

The other reason why I have had a change of heart towards Monaco is their opponent Metz. This team knows nothing else outside defending. And recently their main hope and key to points had broken down - 6 conceded goals on the road vs. Rennes was a bitter result to swallow.

At the offensive end Metz has been one of the worst sides in Ligue1 for weeks - since mid February they found a way to score just an odd goal - the consolation one against Rennes in the 1-6 loss. So one would imagine it came when the opponent was fooling around.

With this setup: the backline leaking goals and the offensive end not producing goals or even chances, I can’t picture Metz stopping Monaco, who have to take that form from the PSG win on to the final stage of the season.

Visitors are also in a rare state with nearly 0 injuries/suspensions, so the manager has nearly a full squad to pick from.

The current odds are higher than I would have expected them to be, especially taking into account Metz has the worst home record in Ligue.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

我担心在开球前，特别是比赛当天，指数可能会下降，所以提前发布了。

两周前，当我支持巴黎圣日耳曼利用摩纳哥的不稳定状态时，摩纳哥在2021/22赛季的表现证明了我的预期是错误的。他们比巴黎圣日尔曼在3月20日3-0大比分的比赛中好了几英里，而且肯定把那场比赛的积极气氛带到了短暂的休息中。

现在，随着欧冠联赛的结束，他们可以专注于创造奇迹，并向冠军联赛区域推进——在还剩9轮的情况下，他们仍然有微小的机会获得至少第三名。由于在法甲积分榜的上半部分几乎没有一致性，摩纳哥取得一个不错的冲刺并不是不可能的。

国际比赛的间歇对球队的影响不应该像2021年秋冬时那样大，当时国家队正在为晋级而战。在这两周内，绝大多数欧洲球队都进行了非正式的友谊赛。

我对摩纳哥改变主意的另一个原因是他们的对手梅茨。这支球队除了防守什么都不懂。最近他们的主要希望和得分的关键已经破灭——在客场对阵雷恩的比赛中丢了6个球，这是一个令人难以接受的痛苦结果。

在进攻端，梅茨是几周以来法甲最差的球队之一——自二月中旬以来，他们找到了一个方法，仅仅打进了一个奇怪的进球——在1-6输给雷恩的比赛中，安慰性的进球。所以人们会认为它是在对手鬼混的时候出现的。

在这种情况下:后防线进球少，进攻端没有进球甚至没有机会，我无法想象梅茨会阻止摩纳哥，他们必须把这种状态从圣日耳曼的胜利带到赛季的最后阶段。

客队几乎没有伤病或停赛，这是一种罕见的状态，所以主帅几乎有一个完整的阵容可供挑选。

目前的胜算比我预想的要高，特别是考虑到梅茨在法甲的主场战绩是最差的。