The pick is self-explanatory and I will try to keep it simple.

I generally do not believe that a big underdog like N.Macedonia in our case can pull off a major surprise inside 1 week. In other words, you can’t walk into the same water twice; or win another lottery ticket the next day after you won your first ticket. What happened in the game between Italy and N.Macedonia had nothing to do with the Blagoja Milevski team outplaying their opponent by finding some tactical mastermind plan. No, it was nothing like that at all. On a normal day Italy would take a routine 2-0/3-0 win and progress to face Portugal and the 24th of March was definitely an abnormal night.

There is another argument for Portugal’s high chances to win and cover the given handicap - Italy’s loss to Macedonia automatically makes them more alert and aware of the opponent. Italy definitely underestimated Milevski’s team and we can be 100% sure Portugal is not falling into that trap.

The third argument in Portugal’s favor would be Cristiano Ronaldo. Even though I find him massively overrated, he is still a miles better centre-forward than Italy’s Ciro Immobile. Having lost speed & dribbling skills, Ronaldo's only biggest asset now is the feel for goal inside the box. This trait is key for Portugal’s success in a game they’re programmed to have 65%+ of the ball. Italy badly lacked a proper goalgetter in the box with all the corner kicks (16!!) and shots (32!!) and had to pay the price.

The home status for Portugal, N.Macedonia coming from an emotionally challenging and exhausting win for another match on the road; the fact this tie is decided over 1 game, which means the trailing team has to risk in the final minutes and pull the backline high up - the list of arguments for a home win is quite significant. And I am leaving aside the biggest and obvious one, which is the massive quality gap between the two squads.

I call for hosts to end Macedonia’s fairy tale with a 2+ goals win.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

一般来说，我不相信像马其顿这样处于劣势的球队能够在一周内制造出一个大惊喜。换句话说，你不能两次走进同一条水里;或者在你赢得第一张彩票后的第二天再赢得一张彩票。意大利对马其顿的比赛中所发生的一切，与米列夫斯基队凭借战术战术胜过对手毫无关系。不，根本不是那样的。在正常的日子里，意大利会以2-0/3-0的比分战胜葡萄牙，而3月24日的比赛绝对是一个不正常的夜晚。

还有另一种说法是，葡萄牙取胜的几率很高，而且可以弥补自己的不利条件——意大利输给马其顿的比赛会自动让他们更加警惕和了解对手。意大利绝对低估了米莱夫斯基的球队，我们可以100%肯定葡萄牙不会落入这个陷阱。

第三个支持葡萄牙的理由是c罗。尽管我认为他被高估了，但他仍然比意大利的西罗·阿莫莫要好上一英里。在失去了速度和带球技巧后，罗纳尔多现在唯一最大的资产就是禁区内进球的感觉。在一场控球率达到65%以上的比赛中，这一特点是葡萄牙队取胜的关键。意大利在禁区里缺少一名称职的守门员，踢了16个角球，射了32个球，他们不得不为此付出代价。

葡萄牙和n .马其顿的主场地位来自另一场客场比赛的精神挑战和令人疲惫的胜利;事实上，这场平局是在一场比赛中决定的，这意味着落后的球队必须在最后几分钟冒着风险，把后防线拉到前面——对于主场取胜的争论是相当重要的。我先不谈最明显的一个，那就是两支球队之间巨大的质量差距。

我呼吁东道主以2+的进球结束马其顿的神话。