I see Valladolid able to win here.

Alcorcon is the worst team in the league. At the bottom with just 18 points after 32 rounds, the team with the highest number of defeats (20) and 19 points below the safe zone, they are already relegated and without motivation.

Their campaign has been a disaster, they make a lot of defensive mistakes (are the team with more goals conceded - 57) and even at home it is the same - 26 conceded, the highest number of the league at home. This is not causality - they are the team with the highest number of shots on target conceded (155) in the league. The central backs are slow in the counters and the team makes a lot of mistakes at the back. The amazing performances and saves of their goalkeeper (who already left the team) were important to don't concede even more goals.

The club tried to react by changing the coach, but it didn't work either. This one is the third in the season. They also tried to sign some offensive players to solve the lack of goal (only 24 scored, the worst of the league) but again, zero results. In the winter market they lost a key player (MVP of the team in the first half of the season) - Dani Jimenez, the goalkeeper.

On the other hand, Valladolid has one of the best squads in the league. Their main target is promotion. They are in the playoffs, but want to reach the first 2 positions to achieve the direct promotion and be back to La Liga. They are 3rd, 4 points below Almeria (2nd).

They are highly motivated to win after two consecutive defeats: Real Oviedo 3:0 (due to a red card at 14’) and last weekend vs Las Palmas (0:1). The coach said: “I expect a reaction, there will be changes. We are not used to being dominated”.

That’s why I think they can win this game - will be able to dominate the match, something that Valladolid needs to win the games. The team only lost points against the top teams of the league. Against weak sides they use to make good performances and take the three points.

The club also organized a meal with the players this week to forget the past and gain confidence for the upcoming games, especially this one where they need to react.

For this match they will miss Gonzalo Plata, El Yamiq and Hugo Vallejo, but they have good replacements and aren’t top players in the team.

Valladolid has a much better squad and much more motivation to win here. They have the second best attack of the league (50 goals in 32 rounds) thanks to the quality and alternatives they have upfront. So they will have many facilities to create chances and score goals against a weak defense like Alcorcon and without their best player - the goalkeeper.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

我觉得瓦拉多利德能赢。

艾可康是联盟里最差的球队。32轮比赛过后，他们只得到了18分，这支以20场比赛失败次数最多，距离安全区域还有19分的球队已经被降级了，没有了前进的动力。

他们的赛季就是一场灾难，他们在防守上犯了很多错误(是不是球队丢的球更多——57个)，甚至在主场也是一样——26个，是联赛中在主场丢的最多的。这并不是因果关系——他们是联盟中射正次数最多的球队(155次)。中卫的防守速度很慢，球队在后防线上犯了很多错误。他们惊人的表现和守门员的扑救(他已经离开了球队)对他们不丢更多的球很重要。

俱乐部试图通过更换教练来应对，但也没有成功。这是本季的第三部。他们还试图签下一些进攻型球员来解决进球不足的问题(只有24个进球，是联赛中最差的)，但还是一无所获。在冬季转会市场上，他们失去了一名关键球员(前半赛季球队最有价值球员)——守门员达尼·希门尼斯。

另一方面，瓦拉多利德拥有联盟中最好的阵容之一。他们的主要目标是促销。他们在季后赛，但希望达到前两个位置，以实现直接升级，并回到西甲。他们排名第三，比排名第二的阿尔梅里亚低4分。

在连续两场失利后:皇家奥维耶多3:0(因为在14分钟时被红牌罚下)和上周末对阵拉斯帕尔马斯(0:1)，他们都很有动力取得胜利。这位教练说:“我期待一个反应，将会有改变。我们不习惯被支配。”

这就是为什么我认为他们能够赢得这场比赛，能够主宰比赛，这是瓦拉多利德赢得比赛所需要的。这支球队只在对阵联盟顶尖球队时丢了分。在对阵弱队时，他们用出色的表现夺得三分。

俱乐部还在本周组织了一场与球员们的聚餐，以忘记过去，为即将到来的比赛赢得信心，特别是这一场他们需要做出反应的比赛。

在这场比赛中，他们将失去普拉塔、亚米克和瓦列霍，但他们有很好的替代人选，而且他们不是球队中的顶级球员。

瓦拉多利德有一个更好的阵容，更有动力去赢得比赛。他们拥有联赛第二好的进攻(32轮50粒进球)，这要归功于他们的实力和前场的选择。所以他们将有很多的设备来创造机会和进球，对抗像阿尔科克康这样的薄弱的防守，没有他们最好的球员——守门员。