Australia VS Japan

Australia welcome Japan at Accor Stadium in Sydney for this Asia World Cup Qualification third stage round 9 clash on Thursday. An intense battle is on the cards despite the fact that both teams have secured a spot in the next round of qualification. Japan can, in fact, in this match guarantee a place in the World Cup in Qatar later this year. The stakes are high indeed and typically for an international matches between pretty equal teams the goal expectancy is low. However, I see the match as even more low-scoring than the betting market and many football analysts. A low number of expected goals increases the probability of a draw – a result that would be enough to bring another World Cup qualification winner for my fans and myself with Japan +1 goals handicap 1x2 option. The probability of a draw is 34% here.

The main reasons behind the analysis on a low-scoring match are the high stakes and the fact that Japan have a very solid defense. Indeed, they have allowed just 3 goals so far in this qualification and have not conceded a goal in 4 of their latest matches! Australia did allow two goals against Oman in a 2-2 draw in their most recent match but are capable of good defending. They were very disappointing in this match despite being close to 70% favorites according to the betting market. They would have to improve a lot to beat a very strong team Japan here! Oman are not a good team and have 8 points in the bank so far, Japan have 18 and Australia have grabbed 15 points so far. It was a pretty balanced match – Australia had 56% ball possession but both teams recorded 10 scoring attempts. Before this Australia did beat Vietnam 4-0 at home as massive favorites. Vietnam are a very poor team though, so I would not get too excited about that result.. Before this they controlled the match against China, but it was still a 1-1 draw.

Australia will again be without manager Graham Arnold, who has given a positive COVID-19 test for a second time. This is of course a negative thing for The Aussies. Moreover, Australia have failed to beat Japan in any of their latest 8 matches! Japan won 5 of these matches and 3 were draws. Japan also beat Australia 2-1 last October at home. Japan have now won 5 matches in a row and played an excellent match in their most recent match against Saudi-Arabia, the group leaders, winning 2-0 at home in February! Before this they dominated China at home winning this match as well 2-0. They had 63% ball possession and defended so well that China failed to record a shot on target! China managed to create only about 10 dangerous attacks. Japan are definitely the favorites in this match!

周四，澳大利亚在悉尼雅高体育场欢迎日本队参加亚洲世界杯预选赛第三阶段第 9 轮比赛。尽管两支球队都在下一轮资格赛中占据了一席之地，但一场激烈的战斗仍在继续。事实上，日本可以在这场比赛中保证在今年晚些时候在卡塔尔举行的世界杯上获得一席之地。赌注确实很高，通常对于相当平等的球队之间的国际比赛，目标预期很低。然而，我认为这场比赛的得分比博彩市场和许多足球分析师还要低。预期进球数少会增加平局的可能性——这一结果足以为我的球迷和我自己带来另一个世界杯资格赛冠军，日本 +1 进球让分 1x2 选项。平局的概率是 34%。

对低分比赛进行分析的主要原因是高风险以及日本拥有非常稳固的防守这一事实。事实上，他们只进了 3 个球，所以在这个资格赛中，他们在最近的 4 场比赛中没有丢球！澳大利亚在最近一场比赛中以 2-2 战平阿曼的比赛中攻入两球，但防守能力出色。尽管根据投注市场，他们接近 70% 的热门，但他们在这场比赛中非常令人失望。他们必须提高很多才能在这里击败一支非常强大的日本队！阿曼不是一支好球队，到目前为止在银行里有 8 分，日本有 18 分，澳大利亚目前已经拿到了 15 分。这是一场相当平衡的比赛——澳大利亚拥有 56% 的控球率，但两支球队都有 10 次得分尝试。在此之前，澳大利亚确实在主场以 4-0 击败越南，成为大热门。越南队虽然是一支很差的球队，所以我不会对这个结果感到太兴奋。在此之前他们控制了与中国队的比赛，但仍然是1-1战平。

澳大利亚将缺少了主教练格雷厄姆·阿诺德（Graham Arnold），他第二次进行了新冠检测呈阳性。这当然是一个对澳大利亚的不利因素。此外，澳大利亚在最近的8场比赛中都未能击败日本！日本赢得了其中5场比赛，3场平局。去年 10 月，日本也在主场以 2-1 击败澳大利亚。日本队目前已经取得5连胜，在最近一次对阵小组头名沙特阿拉伯的比赛中发挥出色，2月主场2-0取胜！在此之前，他们在主场也以2-0战胜了中国队。他们拥有 63% 的控球率，并且防守如此出色，以至于中国队未能射门得分！中国只制造了大约 10 次危险进攻。日本队绝对是本场比赛的热门！预测日本不败。