Superb value in La Liga today!
2022-03-20

Przem

外籍分析师

解读理由:

In my Real Sociedad have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Sociedad don't have any new absences so their line up should exactly the same like in previous round. On the other hand Sevilla have huge squad problems. Today they are without defenders: Diego Carlos (24 matches), Acuna (24 matches) and Rekik (15 matches), midfielders: Gomez (21 matches), Fernando (24 matches), Suso (8 matches) and Lamela (12 matches). In addition to that defender Navas (15 matches), midfielders Rakitic (25 matches) and Gudelj (14 matches), wingers Martial (4 matches) and Corona (9 matches) and top scorer Rafa Mir are doubtful. It's huge blow for the team and should have very bad impact on their performance today.

Sociedad also have huge advantage in fitness department because for them is 4th match in March, last match they played exactly 7 days ago. For Sevilla is 4th match in last 10 days (!). They played 120 minutes in London against West Ham just 3 days ago (Sevilla lost 0:2). Without any shadow of doubt freshness is on guests side. That can make big difference today.

Sociedad won 3 of last 4 matches (3 clean sheets), they lost only against Real Madrid. In last match they won 1:0 against Alaves at home, but they deserved for bigger win as they had 2.59 expected goals scored.

Sevilla have 10 wins in 13 La Liga matches so far, but their results look better than really should look. They scored 28 goals in home matches, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score only 18.35. They conceded 11, but according to to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 14.15. It's big difference.

Sociedad is very solid team and against depleted and tired Sevilla they have bigger chances than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

在我看来,皇家社会在今天的比赛中有很好的机会至少得一分。

社会没有任何新的缺席,所以他们的阵容应该完全像上一轮一样。另一方面,塞维利亚有巨大的阵容问题。现在他们没有后卫:迭戈·卡洛斯(24场),阿库纳(24场)和雷吉克(15场),中场:戈麦斯(21场),费尔南多(24场),索索(8场)和拉梅拉(12场)。除了后卫纳瓦斯(15场)之外,中场拉基蒂奇(25场)和古德雷吉(14场)、边锋马希尔(4场)和科罗娜(9场)、头号射手拉法·米尔都是未知数。这对球队来说是一个巨大的打击,应该会对他们今天的表现产生非常坏的影响。

皇家社会在健身方面也有很大的优势,因为对他们来说,这是三月的第四场比赛,最后一场比赛是在7天前。这是塞维利亚在过去10天里的第四场比赛!三天前,他们在伦敦对阵西汉姆联的比赛中打了120分钟(塞维利亚0:2输掉比赛)。毫无疑问,新鲜感是站在客人一边的。这在今天可以产生很大的影响。

社会在最近4场比赛中赢了3场(3场零失球),他们只输给了皇家马德里。在上一场主场1:0战胜阿拉维斯队的比赛中,他们理应获得更大的胜利,因为他们有2.59个预期进球。

塞维利亚到目前为止在西甲13场比赛中取得了10胜,但他们的结果看起来比实际情况要好。他们在主场比赛进了28个球,但根据预期进球模型,他们应该只进了18.35个。他们丢了11球,但根据预期失球模型,他们应该丢14.15球。这是很大的区别。

社会是一支非常坚固的球队,在对阵疲惫不堪的塞维利亚时,他们的胜算比赌徒们预想的要大。

观点仅代表作者本人,不代表本站立场。
作者在平台、组织、网站等发表的言论,意见,倾向等都只是作者本人的观点,和平台,组织网站等第三方没有关系。