In my opinion Newcastle Jets is must play bet here.

In previous season Newcastle completely trashed at home Wellington as they recorded 4:0 win against them here.

Newcastle lost last 3 matches in a row, but their results look worse than really should look. They lost on away against Wellington, but they shouldn't: expected goals scored for Newcastle 2.41, for Wellington 1.51. In last round they lost on away against Adelaide, but they shouldn't also: expected goals scored for Newcastle 2.28, for Adelaide 1.39. They coming for this game with the strongest possible line up.

On the other hand Wellington have huge squad problems before today's match. Today they are without first goalkeeper Sail, key midfielders Old, Lewis, Rufer (team captain) or key offensive players like Piscopo (second-best scorer) or suspended Ball (2 goals ). It's a huge blow for the team and should have very bad impact on their performance today.

In those circumstances I see superb value on home side.

在我看来，本场可以支持纽卡斯尔喷气机赢球。

上个赛季纽卡斯尔在主场让威灵顿彻底败下阵来，以 4:0 的比分战胜了他们。

纽卡斯尔连续输掉了 3 场比赛，但他们的结果看起来比实际情况更糟糕。他们在客场输给了惠灵顿，但很不应该：纽卡斯尔的预期进球数为 2.41，惠灵顿的预期进球数为 1.51。在上一轮他们客场输给了阿德莱德，但也不应该这样：纽卡斯尔的预期进球数为 2.28，阿德莱德的预期进球数为 1.39。他们以最强的阵容参加这场比赛。

另一方面，惠灵顿在今天的比赛前有巨大的阵容问题。今天他们缺少了第一门将赛尔，关键的中场球员奥尔德、刘易斯、鲁弗（队长），进攻球员比如皮斯科波（第二得分手）或停赛的鲍尔（2球）也会缺席。这对球队来说是一个巨大的打击，应该会对他们今天的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。

在这种情况下，我看好主队赢球。