Quaretaro vs Atletico San Luis

Quaretaro host Atletico San Luis at Estadio La Corregidora for this Liga MX Cluasura round 11 battle on Friday. Mexico have done pretty well in international tournaments during the past 10 or so years and this league is pretty high-level too. Big teams is Europe and more MLS clubs have their eyes on promising, young players from Mexico and countries in South America playing Liga MX. The goal expectancy is on average low in this league - most teams play well-structured pretty defensive football. The goal expectancy here is in my opinion even lower than the betting market and many online football analysts believe. The probability of a draw is clearly over 30% and that would be enough for my fans and myself to win the bet San Luis +0.5 goals handicap. The probability is 70%. Indeed, the visitors are definitely better by raw class and are the favorites here. According to a German website transfermarkt.com the host players have a total market value of 23.70 million euros but they at least 3 of their players are over-rated in my opinion and the fair value of the squad is in my opinion only 19.30 million. The visitors’ squad is valued at 30 million but I would say 35 million would be a more accurate estimation. Especially Juan Manuel Sarabia, 21 from Uruguay is clearly under-valued, and German Berterame should also be valued at higher than 5 million euros!

The hosts are not in impressive form at all. They are without a win in their 4 latest matches and have lost 2 of these. The match against Atlas was awarded though and the final score was set at 0-3. The score was 0-1 when the match was interrupted. They have won just one match this season and whilst the do have potential for improvement I wonder if it will happen today – or will a small improvement be enough.. They were pretty disappointing in their most recent match despite having close to 60% ball possession. They did create some scoring chances but lacked attacking creativity. The visitors, on the other hand are in good form and defeated Puebla in their most recent match 2-1. They were perhaps a little lucky though in this match – a draw would have been justified. However, the betting market still seems to under-value them and over-value the hosts. Before the Puabla match they played a 2-2 home draw and at the end of February them put up an excellent defensive performance once again, and stole all three points from Monterrey away from home. 0-2 was the final score. I expect them to be pretty cautious here as well, especially as at the beginning of the match but trust their defense and the hosts will probably need some luck to win.. San Luis have grabbed two points more than the hosts so far, 10. There will be no spectators, so the home advantage is marginal!

克雷塔罗在主场迎战圣路易斯，周五墨超第 11 轮比赛。在过去的 10 年左右的时间里，墨西哥在国际比赛中的表现相当不错，这个联赛的水平也很高。更多的美职俱乐部将目光投向了来自墨西哥和南美洲国家的有前途的年轻球员。在这个联盟中，平均预期进球数很低——大多数球队都踢出结构良好的防守足球。在我看来，这里的目标预期甚至低于博彩市场和许多在线足球分析师的看法。平局的概率显然超过了 30%。圣路易斯不败是很好的选择，概率是 70%。的确，客队绝对比排名更好，并且是本场的热门。根据德国网站 transfermarkt.com 的数据，主队的总市值为 2370 万欧元，但我认为他们的3名球员被高估了，而球队真正的价值在我看来只有1930万。客队的价值是 3000 万，但 3500 万是更准确的估计。尤其是来自乌拉圭的21岁的胡安·曼努埃尔·萨拉比亚显然被低估了，德国人贝尔泰拉梅的估值也应该在500万欧元以上！

主队根本没有出色的状态。他们在最近的4场比赛中没有获胜，并且输掉了其中的2场。与阿特拉斯的比赛虽然获胜，但最终比分定为0-3。比赛中断时比分是0-1。他们本赛季只赢了一场比赛，虽然他们确实有改进的潜力，但我不认为这会发生在今天。尽管他们拥有接近 60% 的控球率，但在最近的比赛中还是相当令人失望.他们确实创造了一些得分机会，但缺乏进攻创造力。另一方面，客队在状态良好，在最近的一场比赛中以 2-1 击败了普埃布拉。不过在这场比赛中，他们有点幸运——平局是更合理的。然而，市场似乎仍然低估了他们，高估了主队。在与普阿布拉的比赛之前，他们主场2-2战平，2月底他们再次发挥出色的防守表现，并在客场将蒙特雷全取三分。0-2是最后的比分。我预测他们在本场也会非常谨慎，尤其是在比赛开始时，但相信他们会非常保守，主队可能需要一些运气才能获胜。到目前为止，圣路易斯比主队多 2 分。本场不会有观众，主场优势微乎其微！预测圣路易斯不败。