AZ Alkmaar VS FK Bodo/Glimt

AZ Alkmaar from The Netherlands host Norwegian Bodo/Glimt for this Europa Conference League 1/8-finals clash at AFAS Stadion early Friday Beijing time. Both teams have a genuine chance of qualifying as the visitors managed to grab a surprise home win last week. Both teams aim at playing pretty active, offensive football and I am expecting goals and an entertaining battle here. Alkmaar, typically for a Dutch team, will surely try to control the ball right from the start and put a lot of pressure on the visitors’ defense. They have as they simply need to win, preferably by at least to goals’ difference! Neither team are a big team by European standards and are surely hugely motivated to succeed in this 3rd highest European club competition.

The first leg in Norway was extremely balanced and I would say a draw would have been a justified result. Alkmaar had 51% ball possession while the Norwegians had a little more scoring attempts and shots on target. The number of completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks were balanced. However, I would say Bodo/Glimt once again over-performed.. Indeed, they are on a roll and beat Scottish Celtic twice in the previous round. They shocked Celtic by 3-1 away win and went on to win the 2nd leg 2-0 in Norway. They did play well, but the final scores do not reflect the events on the pitch at all! Especially at home Celtic dominated the match creating match more shots on target and the number of dangerous attacks was 87-18 in their favor.. In Norway it was a pretty balanced match though. However, I have often mentioned that neither Celtic or Glasgow Rangers are as could as the betting market seems to believe! As a result of  this surprising success against a bigger and more famous club the Norwegian team has been over-valued on the betting market. Alkmaar have played well and are currently in the 4th place in the pretty high-level Eredivisie with 51 points and have won 4 of their latest 5 matches. This league is much better then the Norwegian Elitserien! Let’s also remember that the hosts are a much bigger bigger club players’ total market value according to Transfermarkt.com. The hosts’ squad is valued at almost 68 million euros, whilst Bodo/Glimt’s players have a total market value of less than 16 million. In front of their loud fans, I expect the hosts the improve from the first leg and they are over 60% favorites to win here. The hosts -0.5 goals handicap is a solid choice for my fans and myself!