Next step to finish in Top4 at the end?!
2022-03-13

Przem

外籍分析师

英超

03/14 00:30

已完赛

阿森纳
1:0
莱切斯特
解读理由:

In my opinion Arsenal is clear favorite of today's match up.

Leicester have horrible record in away matches against Arsenal, they won only once in last 24 matches in London. First match of the season between both teams finished with Arsenal 2:0 win so they have good mental advantage.

Arsenal coming to this game with best possible line up - best scorer Emile Smith Rowe is available again, same as defender Tomiyasu. On the other hand Leicester still have huge squad problems at both ends of the pitch - their top scorer Vardy is unavailable, same as 5 defenders: Fofana, Evans, Castagne, Pereira and Bertrand. That should have very bad impact on their performance today.

Leicester kept clean sheet in last two matches, but that was coincidence - according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 2.80 goals in those matches. They played against Leeds and Burnley - teams involved in fight to avoid relegation, Arsenal is on totally different level. Arsenal scored more than one goal in last week 3 consecutive matches, their performance upfront in last match against Watford was outstanding, everything clicking together at the moment and they are simply too good for poor Leicester defensive formation, only 6 teams in whole league conceded more goals than Leicester. They conceded 25 goals in 12 away matches so far. Arsenal have all required tools to score even more than one goal today.

Arsenal have one of the best defensive formation in whole league and I don't see easy goals today for Leicester. Leicester scored 40 goals in current season, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score only 32.8. Without Vardy today is extremely hard to imagine more than one goal for guests.

All in all, Arsenal is simply much better team and is able to make comfortable win.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

在我看来,阿森纳是今天比赛中最受欢迎的球队。

莱斯特城在客场对阵阿森纳的比赛中有着糟糕的记录,他们在伦敦的过去24场比赛中只赢过一次。两队本赛季的第一场比赛以阿森纳2:0的胜利结束,所以他们有很好的心理优势。

阿森纳将带着最好的阵容来参加这场比赛——最好的得分手埃米尔·史密斯·罗将再次出场,后卫富泰也将出场。另一方面,莱斯特城在攻防两端仍然存在巨大的问题——他们的头号射手瓦尔迪缺席,以及5名后卫:法法纳、埃文斯、卡斯塔涅、佩雷拉和伯特兰。这应该会对他们今天的表现产生非常坏的影响。

莱斯特城在最近两场比赛中保持零失球,但这只是巧合——根据预期失球模型,他们在这两场比赛中应该失球2.80个。他们曾与利兹和伯恩利两支保级球队交手,而阿森纳则处于完全不同的水平。阿森纳在上周连续三场比赛中进球超过一球,他们在上一场对沃特福德的比赛中的表现非常出色,所有的一切都配合得很好,他们对莱斯特糟糕的防守阵型来说实在是太好了,全联赛中只有6支球队的失球数超过莱斯特。到目前为止,他们在12场客场比赛中丢了25球。阿森纳今天已经拥有了所有需要的工具来打进一个以上的球。

阿森纳拥有全联盟最好的防守阵型之一,我认为莱斯特今天的进球并不容易。莱斯特城在本赛季进了40个球,但根据预期进球模型,他们应该只进了32.8个。今天如果没有瓦尔迪,客人的目标很难想象不止一个。

总而言之,阿森纳是一支更好的球队,能够轻松取胜。

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