I don’t think Bayern should be missed when priced this generously by the bookmakers. Period.

I could go on for a while speaking of all the great strengths Munchen club boasts, this and that - all the obvious things, which could justify any bet on Bayern to win. However, what I do want to underline is that Nagelsmann’s guys are mainly playing against themselves in this league, sort of a boxing fight against their own shadows. The “fooling around” should have come to an end, so I see it, they are now basically just +6 points ahead of BVB and another slump will mean Dortmund moves within shooting range. There is still a long way to go til the finish line - this standings setup has to work as a great motivational “speech”.

The other thing to know, which has been going on behind the scenes, is the tactical dilemma Nagelsmann had to solve after losing left fullback Alphonso Davies - a very important attacking unit for his team. The manager tried going on without changing the 4231 setup only to realize something had to give - so he went to a revolutionary 3241 module, an unprecedented formation for European football. He is using Lucas Hernandez and Benjamin Pavard as LCB and RCB (both of them are profile fullbacks) and puts a task of becoming fullbacks when the team is attacking (usually around 60% of the game). The overload this creates in opponents half is second to none. And I do believe the new 3241 tactic hit its’ prime in the midweek game vs. Red Bull Salzburg (7-1 win).

Alphonso Davies is still unavailable, which makes me expect a similar tactical approach to the one used in the Champions League.

Now for Hoffenheim, a few brief words. They are a team that made great progress under Hoeness this manager. Same squad, same coach as in 2020/21 but a significantly better looking, well balanced (finally) and still entertaining side. But they do have one obvious issue - failure to do well against top 5 teams. The record is quite depressive, if I am honest. 2-0 win vs. RB Leipzig (which does not count, in my opinion, as they were then managed by Marsch in November 2021) and the recent 2-2 away draw vs. Bayer. All other games (Bayern, Union, BVB) were lost.

4-0 and 4-1 the last times these two met and I see another relatively comfortable win for the current league champions.

我认为不应该错过这场拜仁赢球。 我可以继续谈一谈慕尼黑俱乐部所拥有的所有强大优势，这是显而易见的事情，这可以证明任何押注拜仁获胜都是合理的。然而，我想强调的是，纳格尔斯曼的球员在这个联盟中主要是在和自己比赛，有点像拳击对抗自己的影子。他们现在基本上只领先多特 6 分，而再次低迷意味着多特蒙德将进入可以追击的范围。距离终点还有很长的路要走——这个排名设置必须作为一个伟大的激励。

另一件在幕后发生的事情是纳格尔斯曼在失去左后卫阿方索·戴维斯后不得不解决的战术困境——这是他的球队非常重要的进攻点。教练尝试在不更改 4231 设置的情况下继续只是意识到必须给予一些东西 - 所以他尝试了革命性的 3241 甄姬，这是欧洲足球史无前例的阵型。他使用卢卡斯·埃尔南德斯和本杰明·帕瓦德作为左中卫和右中卫（他们都是边后卫），并在球队进攻时（通常在比赛的 60% 左右）承担边后卫的任务。这在对手半场造成的压力是巨大的。而且我相信新的 3241 战术在周中对阵萨尔茨堡红牛（7-1 获胜）的比赛中达到了最佳状态。

阿方索戴维斯仍然无法上场，因此本场很可能与冠军联赛中使用的战术方法类似。

现在对霍芬海姆来说几句简短的话。他们是在赫内斯这位主教练的带领下取得了长足进步的球队。与2020/21赛季相同的阵容，相同的教练，但战绩明显更好，平衡并且仍然很有趣。但他们确实有一个明显的问题——在对抗前五名的球队时表现不佳。老实说，这个记录是相当糟糕的。

2-0获胜对阵莱比锡 RB（在我看来，这不算数，因为他们当时在 2021 年 11 月由马希带领）以及最近 2-2 客场战平勒沃库森。所有其他比赛（拜仁、柏林联合、多特蒙德）都输了。

两队最近的交手是拜仁 4-0 和 4-1，我预测卫冕冠军取得另一场相对轻松的胜利。