Alaves asian handicap +1 is my bet here.

Alavés changed the coach two weeks ago, and with the new one improved a lot. Lost undeservedly against Sevilla (1:2) in a match where they missed a penalty and Sevilla scored an amazing goal from 25m outside the box. But the attitude and motivation in Alaves in that game was totally different.

With the new coach I’m sure that this team will go up. Abelardo did a great job a few years ago in Alaves, the team was close to qualifying for the Europa League and their performances at home were almost perfect. They were a really hard team to beat, and the quality of the current squad is almost the same so the performances should be similar.

Anyway, this season Alaves has been a solid home side well. As said, with new coach is expected to improve, but their results so far at home have been good: only lost against Sevila (1:2, missed a penalty), Atletico Madrid (1:2 conceding at 91’), Betis (0:1 conceding at 94’) and Elche (0:2).

They need points and they know that they are totally able to achieve some point here. Key striker Lucas Perez is back from small injury and available.

On the other side, Real Madrid is in a terrible moment. This match could be dangerous as they may be extra motivated, but I can’t really see an easy game for them here.

Madrid lost in the midweek against Alcoyano in the Cup an amateur team. They lost in extra time and were kicked out of the competition, something historical and awful for a big team like Real Madrid. Furthermore, their recent results have been so bad: In Liga, weren’t able to win against Osasuna (0:0) and Elche (0:0), two very weak sides.

The main problem of Madrid is the attack. They can’t find solutions against solid and defensive sides, like Alaves, Osasuna or Elche. This season they suffered a lot playing as visitors - only won three games in La Liga by 2 or more goals: Eibar (1:3 scoring at 92’), Levante (0:2 scoring at 95’) and Barcelona (1:3 scoring at 90’). As you can see, in all of them the victory by +2 goals was thanks to the extra time.

Coach Zidane will be out due to covid. Key defenders Sergio Ramos, Carvajal and Fede Valverde are out as well.

I’m expecting a very tight game, where Alaves has real chances to achieve a positive result. In case of away victory, I dont expect an easy match for Madrid, so the victory should be by minimum difference and the asian handicap +1 for the home team will be void in worst case.

两周前，阿拉维斯换了教练，新教练改进了很多。在1:2输给塞维利亚的比赛中，球队错失了一个点球，塞维利亚在禁区外25米踢进了一个惊人的进球。但是在那场比赛中，阿拉维斯的态度和战意完全不同。

有了新教练，我相信这个队会上升。阿维拉多几年前在阿拉维斯的表现很好，球队接近欧罗巴联赛的资格赛，他们在主场的表现近乎完美。他们是一支很难被击败的球队，现在的球队实力几乎是一样的，所以他们的表现应该是相似的。

不管怎样，这个赛季阿拉维斯一直是一支稳固的主场球队。正如所言，随着新教练的加入，球队有望取得进步，但迄今为止他们在主场的表现还是不错的:只输给了塞维拉(1:2，错失一个点球)，马德里竞技(1:2，91分钟丢球)，贝蒂斯(0:1，94分钟丢球)和埃尔切(0：2)。

他们需要分数，而且他们知道他们完全有能力提升排名。关键前锋卢卡斯·佩雷斯从小伤中恢复，可以上场了。

另一方面，皇家马德里正处于一个糟糕的时刻。这场比赛可能会很危险，因为他们可能有额外的动力，但我不认为他们在这里会有一场轻松的比赛。

马德里在周中输给了科亚诺，一支业余球队。他们在加时赛中失利，被淘汰出局，这对像皇家马德里这样的大球队来说是历史性的，也是可怕的。此外，他们最近的战绩非常糟糕:在西甲，他们没能战胜奥萨苏纳(0:0)和埃尔切(0:0)，这两支非常弱的球队。

马德里的主要问题是进攻。他们无法找到对付像阿拉维斯、奥萨苏纳或埃尔切这样防守严密的球队的方法。本赛季他们在客队的比赛中遭受了很多打击——在西甲联赛中只赢了三场2球以上的比赛:埃巴尔(1:3，92分钟进球)，莱万特(0:2，95分钟进球)和巴塞罗那(1:3，90分钟进球)。正如你所看到的，在所有这些比赛中，球队的胜利都归功于伤停补时。

齐达内教练将因新冠肺炎缺席比赛。关键后卫塞尔吉奥·拉莫斯，卡瓦哈尔和费德·巴尔韦德也将缺席。

我期待着一场势均力敌的比赛，在这场比赛中，阿尔维斯有机会取得积极的结果。如果客场获胜，我不认为皇马会有一场轻松的比赛，所以胜利应该是最小的差距，看好阿拉维斯不败或小负。