Milan vs Atalanta

I simply can't understand the odds here! Milan should be the favorite. Yes, Atalanta were one of the most positive surprises in the European football last season and also succeeded pretty well in the Champions League. They were only some five minutes away from beating the mighty PSG. Their offensive play was great to watch indeed. They have been OK this season, in fact scoring more goals (41) than Milan so far. Only Inter Milan have scored more. I think bettors and the betting market alike in general are too fascinated by the style Atalanta play football and also by their success last season and the long run without a defeat in Serie A. These factors affect their odds too much. Odds for Atalanta are often lower than they really should be. Let's not forget that at the end of the day Atalanta are not a big, traditional club with great history and long-term success or a big team with a huge budget but more like a "middle of the table" kind of team.

AC Milan, with their "mental leader" Zlatan Ibrahomic have been, after many years of disappointments, great this year and lead Serie A at the moment!It has not been a matter of good luck but of truly high-level football. Zlatan is almost forty years old but still plays on a great level scoring all the time. He is an arrogant guy, full of himself but he is also a fighter and a most of all a winner and it seems he has made the whole team believe the winning Serie A is possible now that Juventus are far from the great level they showed for many years dominating Serie A. The Rossoneri play with high confidence and have grabbed 43 points in 18 matches leading arch-rivals Inter Milan by three points. Atalanta are in sixth place and in terms of expected goals they have got the points they have deserved. I must admit the level Milan have shown has been a slight surprise and I have increased their power rating many times during the season. Power rating is an estimation of a team's overall class compared to other teams in the league. Reacting to a team's true level of play fast enough is one of the key things in profitable betting. Luckily for pro-bettors and my fans on the website bookies still underestimate Milan.

Let's take a look at the latest games. Milan recorded a solid 0:2 victory away at Cagliari on Monday. It was not the best match from Milan but they did what was necessary to take three points. Cagliari did have their chances but Milas was the better team and controlled the match. Before that match Milan beat Torino twice in a row. Milan did lose to Juventus about two weeks ago but it was a pretty balanced battle and Milan can be pretty satisfied with the way they performed. Atalanta have two draws in a row and they played OK in those games but scored only one goal. They were a bit unlucky versus Genoa but as mentioned before the offensive "magic" we witnessed last season is not there anymore. I believe Atalanta are a good match up for Milan who will make the most of the chances allowed by Atalanta's mediocre defense. Home advantage is small without spectators but still something we still need to take into consideration.

My probability estimation on Milan to win or draw is 72%. Estimation on Milan to win is 43%.

米兰vs亚特兰大

我简直无法理解这里的可能性!米兰应该是最受欢迎的球队。是的，亚特兰大是上赛季欧洲足坛最积极的惊喜之一，在冠军联赛中也取得了不错的成绩。他们差点击败强大的巴黎圣日耳曼。他们的进攻确实很好看。他们本赛季表现不错，事实上，到目前为止他们的进球(41个)比米兰还多。只有国际米兰进球更多。我认为投注者和博彩市场都被亚特兰大的足球风格所吸引，也被他们上赛季的成功和在意甲的长期不败所吸引。这些因素对他们的指数影响太大了。亚特兰大的胜算通常比他们真正应该的要低。让我们不要忘记，说到底，亚特兰大并不是一个拥有伟大历史和长期成功的传统大俱乐部，也不是一支拥有巨额预算的大球队，而更像是一只“站在桌子中间”的球队。

在经历了多年的失望之后，AC米兰凭借他们的精神领袖伊布在今年表现的非常出色，现在已经领先意甲联赛!这不是运气的问题，而是高水平足球的问题。伊布已经快40岁了，但仍然保持着良好的状态。他是一个傲慢的家伙,但是他也是一个战士,最重要的是一个赢家,似乎他把整个团队赢得意甲现在可能相信尤文图斯正在远离大级别他们显示多年称霸意甲米兰玩高信心和抓住了43分,领先对手国际米兰18场比赛三分。亚特兰大排名第六，在预期进球方面，他们得到了他们应得的分数。我必须承认米兰表现出的水平是一个小小的惊喜，我在这个赛季多次提高了他们的力量等级。力量等级是对球队的整体等级与联盟中其他球队的比较。对球队的真实水平做出足够快的反应是盈利投注的关键之一。幸运的是，外界低估了米兰。

让我们来看看最新的比赛。米兰在周一客场0:2战胜卡利亚里。这不是米兰最好的一场比赛，但他们做了必要的事情得到了三分。卡利亚里有他们的机会，但是米拉斯更好，并且控制了比赛。在那场比赛之前，米兰连续两次击败都灵。米兰在两周前确实输给了尤文图斯，但这是一场相当平衡的战斗，米兰对他们的表现非常满意。亚特兰大连续两场平局，他们在那些比赛中表现不错，但只进了一个球。他们在对热那亚的比赛中有点不走运，但正如我们之前提到的，上赛季我们目睹的进攻“魔法”已经不复存在了。我相信亚特兰大对米兰来说是一个很好的对手，米兰将充分利用亚特兰大平庸的防守所提供的机会。主场优势在没有观众的情况下很小，但我们仍然需要考虑到这一点。

我估计米兰获胜或平局的概率是72%。估计米兰将赢得43%的选票。