In my opinion Bilbao have really good chances to avoid loss in today's match up. +0 AH (or more safe +0.5) looks like very logical choice.

Bilbao currently have solid streak against Valencia as they didn't lost against them in 5 consecutive matches. They have all required tools to continue this streak today.

First match of tie between both teams in Bilbao finished with draw 1:1. Since then both teams played 3 matches in La Liga.

Bilbao lost 2:3 on away against Mallorca after very tight match (expected goals scored for Valencia 1.95, for Bilbao 1.76), then they recorded big home win in derby match, against the biggest enemies from Sociedad (expected goals scored for Bilbao 2.78, for Sociedad 0.47). In last round they lost badly on away against Barcelona, ​​that was fully deserved loss, but I believe that was like cold shower and today we can expect fully focused performance. Bilbao coming to this game with the strongest possible line up .

On the other hand Valencia lost 1:2 on away against poor Alaves after low quality performance. Then they recorded big loss 1:4 at home against Barcelona, ​​same as Bilbao they were totally outplayed. In last round they won on away against Mallorca 1 :0, but that was very undeserved result: expected goals scored for Mallorca 2.02, for Valencia 0.48. Valencia today is without first goalkeeper Cillessen, important defenders Gaya & Correia, important midfielder Cheryshev and key striker Gomez.

Bilbao is much better team at the back, only two teams in whole league conceded less goals than Bilbao. On the other hand Valencia is extremely overrated upfront - yes, they scored 38 goals in La Liga, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 31.5. On the other hand Bilbao scored 29 goals, but according to the model they should score 36.6. It's huge difference, not fully adjusted in odds.

Bilbao has good chances for positive results.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，毕尔巴鄂在今天的比赛中有很好的机会避免失败。+0 AH(或者更安全的+0.5)看起来是非常合理的选择。

毕尔巴鄂目前在对阵瓦伦西亚的比赛中表现良好，他们已经连续5场比赛没有输过。今天，他们已经拥有了延续这一势头所需的所有工具。

两队在毕尔巴鄂的首场比赛以1:1打平结束。从那以后，两支球队在西甲打了三场比赛。

毕尔巴鄂客场2:3输给马洛卡(瓦伦西亚预期进球1.95，毕尔巴鄂预期进球1.76)，然后在德比战中取得主场胜利，对阵最大的敌人社会(毕尔巴鄂预期进球2.78，社会0.47)。上一轮他们在客场输给了巴塞罗那，那完全是罪有应得，但我相信那就像洗了个冷水澡，今天我们可以期待全神贯注的表现。毕尔巴鄂将带着最强的阵容来参加这场比赛。

另一方面，瓦伦西亚在客场输给了可怜的阿拉维斯，表现不佳。然后他们在主场1比4输给了巴塞罗那，就像他们在毕尔巴鄂被完全击败一样。在上一轮比赛中，他们客场1:0战胜了马洛卡，但这是一个非常不公平的结果:马洛卡的预期进球为2.02，瓦伦西亚的预期进球为0.48。瓦伦西亚今天缺少了第一门将西莱森，重要的后卫加亚和科雷亚，重要的中场球员切雷舍夫和关键前锋戈麦斯。

毕尔巴鄂的后防线要好得多，全联赛中只有两支球队的失球比毕尔巴鄂少。另一方面，瓦伦西亚的前场表现被高估了——是的，他们在西甲进了38个球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该进31.5个。另一方面，毕尔巴鄂进了29个球，但根据模型，他们应该进36.6个球。这是巨大的差异，没有完全调整机率。

看好毕尔巴鄂竞技至少不败。