Telstar vs Alkmaar Youth

Telstar have won only 5 from their last 10 but it is worth noticing that they lost to top 5 teams. I believe these losses affect odds too much here is the opponents were a lot better teams than Alkmaar Youth. On the other hand they have defeated opponents that were placed lower than them on the Eerste Divisie table which is the second highest league in the Netherlands. The visitors, Alkmaar Youth have been pretty disappointing throughout the whole season and are currently on the 18th in the league of 20. They did beat Den Bosch 2-1 on the 11th of January but the match was pretty balanced and a draw was close. But let's not forget Den Bosch are the last team on the standings and also the team with the lowest power rating in the whole league. The power rating illustrates the overall class of the team.

In their latest match the visitors stood no chance and lost to Almere City 2-5. Their defensive play was awful and if they can't enhance their performance significantly Telstar will score at least two goals. I have to mention that against Roda Alkmaar Youth showed a decent performance defending pretty well but this led to quite limited offensive play. They lost that game 0-1. However Roda are not as good a team as Telstar.

In my powers there is a clear difference in class between the two teams here. The hosts are much better and I rank them as the 5th best team in the league and the visitors as the second worst team in the league. In terms of expected goals Alkmaar Youth have been slightly lucky whereas Telstar have been a little unlucky. In their latest match the hosts faced a dangerous opponent Oss but won 4-1. A very good performance! The final result doesn't fully reflect what happened on the pitch but they were clearly the better team. I trust Telstar, who are the more classy team and in better shape will win on Friday. A victory by over one goal difference would not be a surprise at all.

My probability estimation on Telstar to win is 64%.

特尔斯达在最近10场比赛中仅赢了5场，但值得注意的是，他们只输给了前5名的球队。我相信这些输球对指数的影响很大，但这些球队对比阿尔克马尔青年队好得多。另一方面，他们击败了在联赛中排名低于自己的对手。客队阿尔克马尔在整个赛季中一直令人失望，目前在20支球队中排名第18。他们在1月11日以2-1击败了登博思，但比赛相当平衡，平局是合理的结果。但不要忘记，登博斯是积分榜上的最后一名的球队，也是全联盟进攻最差的球队，这说明了球队的整体水平。

在他们最近的比赛中，阿尔克马尔客场2-5完败给阿尔梅勒城。他们的防守表现糟糕，如果他们不能显着提高自己的表现，特尔斯达将会至少打进两个球。我不得不提到，在对阵罗达青年队时，他们的防守表现不错，但是进攻能力却很有限。他们0-1输掉了比赛。但是罗达的实力不如特尔斯达。

我认为这两支球队之间的实力差距非常明显。主队要好得多，我把他们视为排名第5的球队，而客队则排在倒数第二差。在预期进球方面，阿尔克马尔青年比较幸运，而特尔斯达不太幸运。在最近的比赛中，主队面对危险的对手奥斯，但4-1获胜，这是很好的表现！最终结果不能完全反映球场上发生的事情，但显然他们是一支更好的球队。我相信特尔斯达（Telstar）是一支更好的球队，而且状态更好，他们将在本场获胜。超过一个球的优势也非常有可能。

特尔斯达应该至少要64％的概率可以赢球。