Huracan vs Verez Sarsfield

Huracan hosts Verez Sarsfield at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Duco in Buenos Aires for this Argentinian Copa De La Liga Profesional round 4 clash early Friday morning Beijing time. A relatively low-scoring match is on the cards according to the betting market and many football analysts as well. However, I expect an even more cautious and low-scoring match. This would increase the probability of a draw and my fans and myself winning the bet Huracan +0.5 goals handicap. The main rationale behind the analysis on the goal expectancy is the fact that Verez Sarsfield often play with a pretty defensive strategy and Huracan do not play very aggressive football even at home. Their fans have sometimes called for more offensive and entertaining football. They have a good coach though whom I trust. Verez Sarsfield are a bad team away from home and managed to win just 3 matches away from home last year in Liga Profesional. Huracan, on the other hand are a pretty strong home team and lost just 3 matches at home last season in Liga Profesional. Indeed, the hosts most have at least 74% chance of avoiding defeat here. The home advantage is substantial here and I am not sure if the betting market has taken it into account strongly enough and the hosts are solid favorites here in my opinion.

I would the hosts as slightly stronger by raw class here despite the fact that in last year in Liga Profesional the visitors finished in the fifth place and Huracan were 8th in the standings but the teams were separated by just one point. Neither team has started the season well and have won just one of the first 3 matches. The hosts, however, have been unlucky and I see them having even more room for improvement than the visitors, especially defensively. Huracan would have deserved a win on the 16th of this month at home when they dominated against Estudianted L.P with 70% ball possession in a match that was expected to be quite balanced. This loss probably odds the odds here too much..

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周五凌晨，胡拉坎队在布宜诺斯艾利斯体育场Tomás主场迎战维雷斯·萨斯菲尔德队，这是阿根廷西甲联赛第4轮比赛。根据机构和许多足球分析师的预测，一场得分相对较低的比赛也有可能发生。然而，我期待一场更加谨慎和低得分的比赛。这将增加平局的概率，主队不败值得考虑。对进球预期进行分析的主要原因是萨斯菲尔德经常采用防守战术，而飓风队即使在主场也不会踢出侵略性很强的足球。他们的球迷有时要求足球更具攻击性和娱乐性。他们有一个好教练，不过我信任他。萨斯菲尔德是一支糟糕的球队，在去年的阿甲联赛中，他只赢得了3场客场比赛。另一方面，飓风队是一支非常强大的主场球队，上赛季在西甲联赛中只输掉了3场比赛。事实上，东道主在这里至少有74%的机会避免失败。主场优势是巨大的，我不确定博彩市场是否充分考虑到这一点，在我看来，东道主在这里是最受欢迎的。

尽管去年西甲联赛中客队排名第五，飓风队排名第八，但两队只差一分。这两支球队赛季开局都不好，前三场比赛都只赢了一场。然而，主队的运气不佳，我认为他们比客队有更大的改进空间，尤其是在防守方面。飓风队本应该在这个月16号主场赢下一场比赛，当时他们以70%控球率的优势战胜了对手，这场比赛被认为是相当平衡的。这次损失可能会使我们的胜算太大了。