Obviously, Chelsea is big favorite of today's match up, but in my opinion they are extremely overrated here. Lille have good chances to avoid big loss and +1.5 AH looks like very good bet for me.

Lille slashed down in comparison to the previous season when they won league title in France, but they are still very solid team - they won their group in Champions League. Since start of November Lille played 18 matches in all competitions and they lost only twice. They lost by big margin against Paris, but their loss 0:2 against Brest on away was undeserved: expected goals scored for Lille 1.35, for Brest 1.32. As You can see, Lille is not so easy team to beat. Their defensive formation coming to this game full of confidence as they kept clean sheet in last two consecutive matches. On the other hand they have dangerous players upfront, especially experienced Yilmaz and talented David (already 12 goals in Ligue 1 in current season), he have big potential to play in the biggest clubs and this is great opportunity for him to show up.

Chelsea level also slashed down if You compare their performances from previous season to what they playing at the moment. Their full back were extremely important for them and they are still injured (Chilwell & James). In many experts opinion Mount is the best Chelsea player in current season (he is their best scorer and second-best assistant), but he is unavailable today. It's a big blow for offensive formation. In addition to that Chelsea 100 mln striker Lukaku is completely out of form. He looked awful in last match against Crystal Palace and he had only 7 touches in that game! Since end of December Chelsea played 12 matches in all competitions and only three times they won with more than one goal margin - twice against Tottenham and once against lower league team Cheltenham in Cup. In addition to that only once they scored more than 2 goals - against Cheltenham! In last 13 matches in all competitions Chelsea conceded at least one goal 8 times and even lower league teams like Plymouth or Cheltenham were able to score against them.

Lille have all required tools to score today. In Ligue 1 they scored 32 goals in 25 matches, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 38.5. Chelsea goalkeeper Mendy played 5 matches against Lille in past and he never kept clean sheet.

I don't see 3 goals for Chelsea, they had only 9 shots in their last 1:0 win against Crystal Palace: expected goals scored for Chelsea 1.20, for Crystal 0.75.

This may be much closer match than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds. Value for sure is on Lille side, especially on such high lines like +1.5.

Lille manager Jocelyn Gourvennec said: "We are competitors so we will not be going there just to be Chelsea's sparring partners, that's for sure. They are a great team but there are always surprises in cup matches and we want to be the party poopers, as we have been since the beginning of this Champions League campaign."

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

显然，切尔西是今天比赛的大热门，但在我看来，他们在这里被高估了。里尔有很好的机会避免大败。

里尔上赛季在法国获得联赛冠军，相比之下，他们的实力有所下降，但他们仍然是一支非常稳固的球队——他们在冠军联赛中赢得了小组冠军。自11月初以来，里尔在所有比赛中出场18场，只输了2场。他们在与巴黎的比赛中大比分失利，但客场0:2输给布雷斯特却是不应该的:里尔的进球为1.35，布雷斯特的进球为1.32。正如你所看到的，里尔队不是那么容易打败的。他们的防守阵型在这场比赛中充满信心，因为他们连续两场比赛都没有失球。另一方面，他们的锋线上也有危险的球员，特别是经验丰富的伊尔马兹和有天赋的大卫(本赛季在法甲已经打进了12个进球)，他有很大的潜力在大俱乐部踢球，这对他来说是一个很好的机会。

切尔西的水平也下降了，如果你把他们上个赛季的表现和他们现在的表现相比较的话。他们的后卫对他们来说非常重要，而他们仍然在受伤(奇尔维尔和詹姆斯)。在许多专家看来，芒特是本赛季切尔西最好的球员(他是他们最好的射手和第二好的助理)，但他今天不能上场。这对进攻阵型来说是个巨大的打击。此外，切尔西1亿前锋卢卡库的状态完全不佳。他在上一场对水晶宫的比赛中看起来糟透了，那场比赛他只有7次触球!自去年12月底以来，切尔西总共参加了12场比赛，其中只有三场比赛他们以超过一球的优势获胜，分别是在杯赛中对阵托特纳姆的两场和对阵低级别联赛球队切尔滕纳姆的一场。除此之外，只有一次他们进了2个以上的球——对阵切尔滕纳姆!在过去的13场比赛中，切尔西至少失球8次，甚至像普利茅斯和切尔滕纳姆这样的低级联赛球队都能在对阵他们时进球。

里尔今天拥有所有需要的进球工具。在法甲，他们在25场比赛中进了32个球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该进38.5球。切尔西门将曼迪过去在对阵里尔的比赛中踢了5场比赛，但他从未保持一球未失。

我不认为切尔西有3个进球，他们在最后1比0战胜水晶宫的比赛中只有9个进球:切尔西的预期进球为1.20，而克里斯托则为0.75。

这一场比赛的胜算可能比庄家们所建议的要接近得多。价值肯定是在里尔这边，特别是像+1.5这样的高线。

里尔主教练乔斯林·古尔文内克说:“我们是竞争对手，所以我们不会去那里只是做切尔西的陪练，这是肯定的。他们是一支伟大的球队，但在杯赛中总是有惊喜，我们希望成为派对的破坏者，就像我们在欧冠赛季开始时那样。”