Toluca vs Cruz Azul

Toluca host Cruz Azul for this Mexico Liga MX Clausura round 6 battle at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca early Monday morning Beijing time. The visitors are surely the stronger team by raw class, but I did rate them lower than the betting market and many football analysts before the season started. With the hosts the situation was the opposite, and I have not seen a reason to make any major modifications on my power ratings that reflect the team’s overall level compared to other teams in the league. Typically for this league a high-scoring match is not probable, and I see the probability of a draw being slightly bigger than the betting market. A draw would be enough for my fans and myself to win this bet on Toluca with a +0.5 goals handicap. The visitors are favorites, even taking a quite substantial home advantage into account but I would not estimate them having more than 36% chance of winning, meaning that the pick has at least 64% chance of winning.

The hosts currently occupy 7th position with 9 points in the bank in surprisingly high-level league. I recommend my fans watching it from time to time! The visitors have recorded 10 points and are in the 5th place in the standings, but Toluca have played one match less than Cruz Azul. Toluca are in fine form indeed having won three of their latest matches but still seem to be under-valued by the betting market. I must say that they were a bit lucky in their most recent match against Atl. San Luis as, pretty clear underdogs according to the betting market away from home as the hosts did control the match, but Toluca put up a determined defensive battle and scored the only goal in the match. I see them having potential from improvement in offense but even the level they have shown overall so far this season should be enough to take something from this match. Against Mazatlan they had 70% ball possession, and dominated the match deserving the win again as underdogs. The visitors have has some luck on their side this season and have slightly disappointed on them. Especially versus Club Leon they were clearly the worse team but with luck stole all three points away from home.

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北京时间周一凌晨，托卢卡在托卢卡内梅西奥体育馆Díez主场迎战克鲁兹。客队当然是更强的球队，但在赛季开始前，我给他们的评级低于博彩市场和许多足球分析师。而东道主的情况正好相反，我还没有看到任何理由对我的功率评级做出任何重大调整，以反映出这支球队相对于联赛其他球队的整体水平。对于这个联赛来说，一场高得分的比赛是不太可能的，我认为打成平局的概率要比博彩市场略大一些。一场平局足以让我和我的球迷以+0.5的差点赢下这个托卢卡的赌注。客队是最受欢迎的，即使考虑到主场优势，但我不会估计他们有超过36%的胜算，这意味着他们至少有64%的胜算。

东道主目前以9分的成绩位居第七。我建议我的粉丝经常看!客队取得了10分的成绩，在积分榜上排名第五，但托卢卡比克鲁兹蓝鹰少踢了一场比赛。托卢卡的状态确实很好，最近赢了三场比赛，但似乎仍然被博彩市场低估了。我必须说他们在最近对Atl的比赛中有点幸运。根据客场博彩市场的情况，圣路易斯队明显处于劣势，主队确实控制了比赛，但托卢卡进行了坚决的防守，并打进了比赛中唯一的一球。我认为他们在进攻上有提高的潜力，但即使是他们本赛季迄今为止所表现出的整体水平也足以从这场比赛中获得一些东西。在对马萨特兰的比赛中，他们有70%的控球权，并主导了这场比赛，并理应再次获得胜利。客队本赛季运气不错，但也有点失望。特别是对里昂俱乐部，他们显然是最差的球队，但幸运的是他们在主场偷走了三分。