In my opinion Fiorentina have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

In overall Fiorentina have good record against Atalanta as they lost only 6 of last 26 matches against them. Mental advantage as well is on their side because they won against Atalanta on away in Cup just 10 days ago.

Fiorentina lost last two matches at home against Atalanta, but they played much worse in last two years in comparison to the current season. Before that Fiorentina didn't lost in 18 consecutive home matches against Atalanta! They never lost 3 times in a row against them at home.

Both teams are very close in league table - Atalanta is 5th, only 5 points above Fiorentina, but hosts currently are in much better form - Atalanta won only one of last 7 league matches. On the other hand Fiorentina is super solid at home - they didn't lost in 7 of last 8 matches at Artemio Franchi (6 wins in the process, 25 goals scored).

Fiorentina at home scored 29 goals, three more than Atalanta in away matches. Fiorentina conceded 4 goals more, but according to the expected goals conceded model both teams should concede almost the same number (12.49 against 12.37). Even in that department is hard to see Atalanta as a favorite here.

Fiorentina coming with strong line up for this match without any big absences. On the other hand Atalanta have huge squad problems before today's match, they are without key central defender Palomino (second-best player in current season according to the ratings), key winger Ilicic (second-besf assistant), important midfielder Miranchuk (1 goal and 3 assists), important striker Muriel (4 goals and 4 assists) and best scorer Zapata (9 goals and 4 assists). It's a huge blow and should have very bad impact on their performance today.

On the top of that, Fiorentina should have more freshness - Atalanta played in European Cups in the midweek. Atalanta coach Gasperini don't have promising record against Fiorentina in his managerial career - only 5 wins in 24 matches. I see continuation of this streak today.

在我看来，佛罗伦萨有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少取得一分。

总体而言，佛罗伦萨对阵亚特兰大的战绩不错，他们在过去的26场比赛中只输了6场。士气的优势也在他们这一边，因为他们在 10 天前的杯赛客场战胜了亚特兰大。

佛罗伦萨最近两场主场对阵亚特兰大都输了，但与本赛季相比，他们过去两年的表现要差得多。此前佛罗伦萨连续18场主场对阵亚特兰大都没有输过！他们从未在主场连续输过3次。

两支球队在积分榜上非常接近——亚特兰大排名第 5，仅比佛罗伦萨高 5 分，但主队目前的状态要好得多——亚特兰大在过去 7 场联赛中只赢了一场。另一方面，佛罗伦萨在主场非常稳固——他们在阿特米奥·弗兰基的过去 8 场比赛中有 7 场没有输球（过程中取得 6 胜，进 25 球）。

佛罗伦萨主场打进29球，比亚特兰大客场多3球。佛罗伦萨多丢了 4 个球，但根据预期丢球模型，两支球队的丢球数应该差不多（12.49 对 12.37）。很难看出亚特兰大有太明显的优势。

佛罗伦萨本场比赛阵容完整，没有重要的缺席。另一方面，亚特兰大在今天的比赛前有很大的阵容问题，他们缺少了关键中卫帕洛米诺（根据收视率排名本赛季第二好的球员），关键边锋伊利西奇（助攻第二多），重要的中场米兰丘克（1球）和 3 次助攻），重要前锋穆里尔（4 球和 4 次助攻）和最佳射手萨帕塔（9 球和 4 次助攻）。这是一个巨大的打击，应该会对他们今天的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。

最重要的是，佛罗伦萨应该有更大的体能优势——亚特兰大在周中参加了欧战。亚特兰大主帅加斯佩里尼在执教生涯中对阵佛罗伦萨的战绩并不乐观——24场比赛只赢了5场。我预测佛罗伦萨不败。