02月14日莱切斯特城 VS 西汉姆联比赛分析直播
02月13日纽卡斯尔联 VS 阿斯顿维拉比赛分析直播
33：摩纳哥、纽卡继续强势？
解读理由：
Premier League double pack for today
In first game I don't see Newcastle United as a underdog. They have all required tools to make at least one point. In second game West Ham is bigger favorite than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds. I see value in + 0 AH or more safe double selection +0.5.
1.
Why I don't see today Aston Villa win?
- Newcastle currently have very superb streak against Aston Villa in Premier League home matches. 12 consecutive matches at St. James' Park in the highest league. They didn't lost at home in Premier League game against The Villans since April 2005!
- Aston Villa won at home first match of the season between both teams, but they didn't won twice in one Premier League season against The Magpies since 2004.
- Since away win against Norwich at 14th December Aston Villa won only once in last 6 Premier League matches, but even in that game against Everton (1:0), that wasn't fully deserved: expected goals scored for Everton 1.43, for Aston Villa 0.95.
Why I see good chances for Newcastle?
- They improved a lot in recent weeks, two wins in a row. They won 3:1 in last round at home against Everton and that was fully deserved win. Expected goals scored for Newcastle 3.21, for Everton 1.12.
- Newcastle scored 17 goals in home matches (according to the expected goals scored model they should score 17.54). In comparison to that Aston Villa scored only 11 goals in away matches so far.
- In last 4 Premier League matches Newcastle had in average 15 shots per game (over 5 on target). On the other hand Aston Villa conceded 11 goals in last 6 matches in all competitions.
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2.
Why I don't see Leicester win?
- They have huge squad problems at the back. Leicester played already 21 matches in current season, but any player from defensive formation in today's possible line up didn't played more than 14 matches (Ndidi). They are still without Evans, Bertrand, Fofana & Castagne. They don't have consistency at the back and it's visible in results: 10 goals conceded in last 4 matches (4 against Nottingham from Championship).
- The Foxes are still without their best striker Jamie Vardy (9 goals in 16 matches).
- Leicester lost last 3 consecutive matches against West Ham and conceded 10 goals in the process.
- Leicester conceded 16 goals in 11 home matches, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 22.02! It's big difference.
- Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers lost 3 consecutive games against current West Ham manager David Moyes.
Why I see good chances for West Ham?
- They have superb streak against Leicester in Premier League, they scored in 26 of 29 matches against them. The Hammers should score today as well against their depleted and poor defensive formation.
- West Ham scored 19 goals in 12 away matches so far. In addition to that The Hammers scored at least one goal in 9 of last 10 matches in all competitions (7 times they scored more than once).
- Only Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea recorded more points in away matches than West Ham
- The Hammers best scorer Antonio loves to play against Leicester as he scored 4 goals and recorded one assist in last 5 games against them.
本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：
在第一场比赛中，我不认为纽卡斯尔联队是一个失败者。他们都有必要的工具来说明至少一点。在第二场比赛中，西汉姆队的胜算比庄家们说的要大。我看到值在+0 AH或更安全的双重选择+0.5。
1.
为什么我今天看不到阿斯顿维拉赢球?
纽卡斯尔目前在英超主场对阵阿斯顿维拉的比赛中取得了非常好的连胜。在最高联赛中连续12场在圣詹姆斯公园球场的比赛。自2005年4月以来，他们就没有在主场输给过维拉队!
-阿斯顿维拉在主场赢下了两队本赛季的首场比赛，但自2004年以来，他们在英超赛季中没有两次战胜喜鹊。
-自从12月14日客场战胜诺维奇后，阿斯顿维拉在过去的6场英超比赛中只赢了一场，但即使是那场对埃弗顿(1:0)的比赛，这也不是完全应得的:埃弗顿的预期进球为1.43，阿斯顿维拉的预期进球为0.95。
为什么我认为纽卡斯尔会有好机会?
-最近几周他们进步很大，连赢两场。他们在上一轮主场3:1击败埃弗顿，这是完全应得的胜利。纽卡斯尔的预期进球为3.21，埃弗顿为1.12。
纽卡斯尔在主场比赛进了17个球(根据预期进球模型，他们应该进17.54)相比之下，阿斯顿维拉到目前为止在客场比赛中只进了11个球。
在最近的4场英超比赛中，纽卡斯尔场均15次射门(超过5次射正)。另一方面，阿斯顿维拉在最近的6场比赛中丢了11个球。
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2.
为什么我看不到莱斯特城赢?
-他们的后防线有很大的问题。莱斯特城在本赛季已经打了21场比赛，但今天可能出现的后防阵容中任何一名球员都没有打过超过14场比赛(尼迪迪)。他们仍然没有Evans, Bertrand, Fofana和Castagne。他们在后防线上缺乏连贯性，这在结果中是显而易见的:在最近4场比赛中丢了10个球(冠军杯对阵诺丁汉时丢了4个)。
狐狸队仍然没有他们最好的前锋杰米·瓦尔迪(16场比赛进9球)。
-莱斯特城在与西汉姆联的比赛中连输3场，丢了10个球。
-莱斯特城在11场主场比赛中丢了16球，但根据预期失球模型，他们应该丢22.02球!这是很大的区别。
-莱斯特主帅布伦丹·罗杰斯在对阵现任西汉姆主帅大卫·莫耶斯的比赛中连输3场。
为什么我认为西汉姆会有好机会?
-他们在英超对阵莱斯特的比赛中取得了辉煌的连胜，对阵莱斯特的29场比赛中有26场进球。铁锤队今天应该也能得分，因为他们的防守阵型很差。
西汉姆联队在12场客场比赛中进了19个球。此外，在所有比赛的最后10场比赛中，锤子队有9场比赛打进了至少一个进球(有7次他们的进球不止一次)。
-只有曼城、利物浦和切尔西在客场得分超过西汉姆联
锤子队最佳射手安东尼奥非常喜欢对阵莱斯特城的比赛，他在最近5场对阵莱斯特城的比赛中攻入4球，并助攻1次。
观点仅代表作者本人，不代表本站立场。
作者在平台、组织、网站等发表的言论，意见，倾向等都只是作者本人的观点，和平台，组织网站等第三方没有关系。
作者在平台、组织、网站等发表的言论，意见，倾向等都只是作者本人的观点，和平台，组织网站等第三方没有关系。