In my opinion Heracles have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

For me Heracles is very underrated here. In last 5 league matches they lost only against Ajax - the strongest team in whole league. If You look on Heracles results at home in long-term, they lost are very consistent at Erve Asito Stadion. They lost only 22 of last 75 home league matches!

I not trust for Utrecht as they recorded only 2 wins in last 8 matches in all competitions. Also they are not so good team on away. It's very visible if You look on their away results in long-term. They failed to win in 49 of last 74 away league matches. In current season they failed to win in 7 of their 10 away matches.

Even more interesting things are visible in expected goals scored/conceded models. I believe this is not adjusted in today's odds. According to the models Heracles now should be on 7th place in league table, instead of 15! They played much better than their results shows.

Heracles didn't lost in 8 of 11 home matches in current season, but they should even make better results. They scored 16 goals in those matches, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 17.92. They conceded 13 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 11.33. On the other hand Utrecht scored 13 goals in 10 away matches, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 10.80.

In previous season Heracles won 4:1 at home against Utrecht and I see for them really good chances to make at least one point again.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，海格力斯在今天的比赛中有很好的机会至少得一分。

对我来说，赫拉克勒斯在这里被低估了。在最近的5场联赛中，他们只输给了阿贾克斯——全联赛最强的球队。如果你长期观察赫拉克勒斯在主场的成绩，他们在阿西托球场的失利是非常稳定的。在过去的75场主场联赛中，他们只输掉了22场!

我不相信乌得勒支，因为他们在过去8场比赛中只取得了2场胜利。而且他们在客场的表现也不是很好。这是很明显的，如果你长期观察他们的结果。在过去的74场客场比赛中，他们有49场没有赢球。在本赛季的10场客场比赛中，他们有7场未能获胜。

更有趣的是在预期进球/失球模型中可以看到。我相信这并没有调整到今天的概率。根据模型，赫拉克勒斯现在应该在联赛表的第7位，而不是15位!他们踢得比结果显示的要好得多。

在本赛季的11场主场比赛中，海格立斯没有输掉8场，但他们应该会取得更好的成绩。他们在这些比赛中进了16个球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该进17.92个。他们丢了13个球，但根据预期失球模型，他们应该丢11.33个球。另一方面，乌得勒支队在10场客场比赛中打入13球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该得到10.80球。

上个赛季，海格力斯主场4:1战胜乌得勒支，我认为他们有很好的机会至少再得一分。