Roma are firmly in the race for Champions League places despite going two matches without a win. The absences of key players Manuel Koné and Paolo Dybala weakened the team in their 0–1 loss away to Udinese, but Dybala is expected to return to the lineup for Monday’s home match.

Cagliari took a significant risk before the season by promoting Fabio Pisacane from within the club to head coach. The inexperienced manager has justified that trust, getting a near-relegation-level squad to perform at a level that has all but secured their Serie A status. That is a huge success, especially for a team who tradtionally has collected almost all of their points on home ground. They also already won Roma at home, by 1-0!

The quality gap between the teams clearly favors Roma, further emphasised by Cagliari’s stronger reliance on home advantage. I estimate the home side has more than 70% chance of winning, with an expected goals total of around 2.6, but very little of that exceptation is Cagliari's.

At home, Roma vs these bottom-third teams usually wins by 2-0. It is also the most likely outcome tonight.

Good luck!

尽管两场比赛一胜未负，罗马仍然稳稳地在欧冠席位的争夺中。关键球员曼努埃尔·科诺埃尔和保罗·迪巴拉的缺席削弱了球队在客场0-1输给乌迪内斯的比赛中，但迪巴拉有望在周一的主场比赛中回归阵容。

卡利亚里在赛季开始前冒了很大的风险，把法比奥·皮萨凯恩从俱乐部内部提拔为主教练。这位经验不足的教练证明了这种信任是正确的，他让一支接近降级级别的球队在一个几乎可以确保他们意甲地位的水平上表现出色。这是一个巨大的成功，特别是对于一支传统上几乎所有的积分都是在主场获得的球队来说。他们也已经在主场以1-0战胜了罗马！

两队之间的实力差距显然对罗马有利，卡利亚里对主场优势的依赖进一步强调了这一点。我估计主队有超过70%的获胜机会，预计总进球数在2.6个左右，但卡利亚里的例外很少。

在主场，罗马对阵这些排名倒数第三的球队通常以2-0获胜。这也是今晚最有可能出现的结果。

好运！