Osasuna have improved offensively. They look more decisive in the final third and have added some interesting pieces in the market like Raúl Moro and Javi Galán. However, structurally, defensively, I still see a fragile team. They concede too much, they suffer when pushed back, and they rely heavily on moments rather than control. Several of their recent wins have come very late, after the 90th minute, and honestly without fully deserving them. Games like Oviedo or Rayo Vallecano are good examples of a team surviving more than dominating.

For this match, the absences in midfield are huge. Losing the starting double pivot Torró and Moncayola together is the core of their balance. Without them, Lisci will have to improvise, either changing profiles or even systems, and that usually means losing automatisms. Against a team like Celta, that can be fatal.

Celta arrive in a much healthier moment. The team is growing, not only in results but in identity. What I like most is how they have improved defensively. Clean sheets, better distances between lines, and much more confidence when protecting their own box. This is not the chaotic Celta of earlier in the season. This is a team that understands when to suffer and when to push.

The return of Fer López has been a big boost, both emotionally and tactically. He gives them control, calm, and quality in possession. When you add that to players like Ilaix Moriba or Miguel Román, you see a midfield that can dominate weakened opposition units. And at home, Celta usually raise their level. Four consecutive home wins is not a coincidence, it is a sign of a team that starts to feel strong in its stadium.

Motivation is another key point for me. Celta have a very clear objective: Europe. They are close, they know it, and games like this are marked in red. Osasuna, on the other hand, are still looking over their shoulder. Even Lisci himself has admitted that despite the recent run, they are not far from the relegation zone. That difference in ambition matters when the match gets tight.

Balaídos is not an easy place to go when Celta are confident. The crowd pushes, the rhythm increases, and opponents are forced to defend deeper than they want. With Osasuna already conceding chances and now missing their usual midfield shield, I see Celta creating enough situations to tilt the game their way.

I expect Osasuna to compete, to have moments, but also to suffer a lot without the ball. If Celta score first, I really struggle to see Osasuna turning it around. The home side look more solid, more balanced, and simply better prepared for this type of match right now.

奥萨苏纳在进攻端有了进步。他们在最后三分之一看起来更具决定性，并且在市场上增加了一些有趣的球员，如Raúl莫罗和哈维Galán。然而，在结构和防守上，我仍然认为这是一支脆弱的球队。他们让步太多，当他们被反击时，他们会感到痛苦，他们严重依赖时刻而不是控制。他们最近的几场胜利来得很晚，都是在第90分钟之后，老实说，他们根本配不上这些胜利。像《奥维耶多》或《雷约·巴列卡诺》这样的游戏便是团队生存而非统治的好例子。

对于这场比赛，中场的缺阵是巨大的。失去首发双支点Torró和蒙卡约拉一起是他们平衡的核心。没有他们，Lisci将不得不即兴发挥，要么改变配置文件，要么甚至改变系统，这通常意味着失去自动化。面对像塞尔塔这样的球队，这可能是致命的。

塞尔塔在一个更健康的时刻到来。这支球队正在成长，不仅在成绩上，而且在身份上。我最喜欢的是他们在防守上的进步。干净的床单，更好的线间距离，更有信心保护自己的禁区。这已经不是赛季初混乱的塞尔塔了。这是一支懂得何时受苦，何时进取的球队。

费尔López的回归在情感和战术上都是一个巨大的推动。他给了他们控制、冷静和控球的能力。当你加上像森巴和米格尔Román这样的球员，你就会看到一个可以控制弱小对手的中场。在主场，塞尔塔人通常会提高他们的水平。连续四场主场胜利并非巧合，这是一支球队在主场开始感到强大的标志。

对我来说，动力是另一个关键点。塞尔塔有一个非常明确的目标：欧洲。他们很接近，他们知道，像这样的比赛是用红色标记的。另一方面，奥萨苏纳仍在小心翼翼。就连利西自己也承认，尽管最近表现不佳，但他们离降级区也不远了。在竞争激烈的时候，这种野心的差异很重要。

当塞尔塔有信心的时候，Balaídos不是一个容易去的地方。人群推挤，节奏加快，对手被迫防守得比他们想要的更深。由于奥萨苏纳已经失去了机会，现在失去了他们通常的中场盾牌，我认为塞尔塔创造了足够的机会来倾斜比赛。

我希望奥萨苏纳有竞争力，有机会，但也会遭受很多无球的痛苦。如果塞尔塔先进球，我真的很难看到奥萨苏纳扭转局面。主队看起来更稳固，更平衡，而且为这种类型的比赛做了更好的准备。