Quality value in handicap
2022-01-26

Aleksandar

足球分析师

非洲杯

01/27 00:00

已完赛

解读理由:

This is simply about the competition itself. The first thing that came to my mind is that we gonna see here draw and extra time/penalties. But the bet itself I take because there is a proper value in these odds on backing Egypt with a double X2 chance. The value is in that handicap!

Ivory Coast is one of the positive surprises of this AFCON, as they are without a loss in the group stage and have scored 6 goals so far! Firstly they won over Equatorial Guinea 1-0, then a 2-2 draw with Sierra Leone before taking a big victory against Algeria 3-1 while throwing them out of the tournament. We had a bet on Ivorians against Algeria, and we won. But, today, the opponent is different and odds are different. Dont be fooled by two good games, have in mind that rivals are not some special name,s. So, I don't agree that Ivory Coast should be at this level favorite against Egypt, I thought we gonna see totally equal odds. Ofcourse, Ivory Coast has some really great names we mentioned in the previous preview but don't forget Egpyt with one of the best players in the world in their ranks, right-winger Salah.

Egypt started with a loss versus Nigeria at this tournament. But then they woke up with 2 wins in the next two games, both 1-0 over Sudan and Guinea Bissau. Attacking, this team was sleeping in the group stage, compared to today's rivals. When it comes to some statistical details, they have an average 58% ball possession, (ball in their legs) in the first 3 games, while Ivory Coast is on 51% average ball possession in this period. The good note is a defensive of Egypt, which allowed opponents to create only 0.85 xG so far. Here is the picture I made with excel to visualize the situation.


这场比赛我们更加关注比赛本身。我想到的第一件事是我们很可能会看到平局和加时赛/点球。我更看好埃及常规时间不输球。

科特迪瓦是本届非洲杯的惊喜之一,因为他们在小组赛中没有输过球,到目前为止已经打进6球!首先,他们以 1-0 战胜赤道几内亚,然后以 2-2 战平塞拉利昂,最后以 3-1 大胜阿尔及利亚,同时将阿尔及利亚淘汰出局。我们当时选择了科特迪瓦并且最终赢了。但是今天,对手不同,胜算也不同。不要被两个好游戏所迷惑,对手的实力并不强。所以,我不认为科特迪瓦是本场的热门,我们会看到两队完全平等的机会。当然,科特迪瓦有一些出色的球员,但不要忘记埃及和他们队伍中世界上最好的球员之一,右边锋萨拉赫。

埃及在本次比赛中输给了尼日利亚。但随后他们在接下来的两场比赛中取得两场胜利,均以 1-0 战胜苏丹和几内亚比绍。进攻端,这支球队在小组赛中处于沉睡状态,与今天的对手相比。当谈到一些统计细节时,他们在前 3 场比赛中的平均控球率为 58%,而科特迪瓦在此期间的平均控球率为 51%。值得一提的是埃及的防守,到目前为止,对手只能创造 0.85 的预期进球。这是我用excel制作的图片。

Backing to the history and checking the last direct game between two rivals: the last time when two teams met in a competitive game was in 2008 and back then Egypt won 4-1. Today, the game will be perhaps tighter and close more then, so a draw wouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Still, Mohammed Salah is just waiting for his chance to shine for his country and today may be the greatest opportunity for it. Two possible results in my mind : 1-2 or 1-1.


回顾历史,看看两支对手之间的最近一次直接交手:两支球队上一次在竞技比赛中相遇是在2008年,当时埃及以4-1获胜。今天,比赛可能会更加紧张和接近,所以平局不会让任何人感到意外。尽管如此,穆罕默德·萨拉赫一直想带领他的国家队取得出色的成绩,而今天可能是最大的机会。我认为有两种可能的结果:1-2 或 1-1。

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