Guinea vs Gambia

Gambia challenge Gambia in this Africa Cup of Nations 1/8 final at Kouekong Stadium in Bafoussam, Cameroon. A tight battle and probably not very entertaining match is expected between this two countries late on Monday Beijing time. Let's take a closer look at the match..

Typically for most matches in this tournament an extremely low-scoring clash is expected here.. I see the game as even more low-scoring than the betting market on average and most analysts/experts online. This increases the probability of a draw hence making our bet (Gambia to win or draw) even better. Contrary to the odds offered here I see Guinea only as very narrow favorites and Gambia is once again under-valued offering as a chance to place a good value bet! Guinea need an improved performance against better than expected Gambia - who participate the tournament for the first time this year. I did rate them higher than most analysts and the betting market before the tournament started but have still been positively surprised by their performances! They played a 1-1 draw against Malu and defeated Mauritania and Tunisia 1-0. They were given only some 20% chance to win against Tunisia by the betting market and I can not say they really deserved the win based and events on the pitch but they defended very well - once again! They still have room for improvement offensive-wise but even if they they play at the same level as before here they have a very good chance to avoid defeat today. Yes, Tunisia were the more dominant team but the shots on target statistic was still 3-3. Gambia grabbed the win at the dying minutes of the match and this must be a massive confidence boost! We must remember that the North African country Tunisia are a very good team and have played in World Cup before too..

Guinea have never lost an AFCON qualifying match against Gambia but we must remember that Gambia have improved lately and Guinea do not seem to be at their best.. They will hope their prior experience of tournament football counts for something but they have lost all of their last three AFCON knockout matches without scoring.. They were pretty disappointing in the group-stage scoring only 3 goals. I was particularly unhappy by their latest match against a pretty weak team Zimbabwe - they lost 1-2. Yes, they would have deserved a bit more having a high ball possession % but still they lacked offensive creativity and their defense looked pretty vulnerable. Both teams recorded 4 shots on target. They were some 60% favorites to win according to the betting market and failed to deliver.. I do not quite understand why they are once again valued so highly here despite having a few talented players. They were disappointing, as heavy favorites, also against Malawi - a lowly team despite the 1-0 win. Malawi even created more shots on target and a draw would not have been unjustified..

To sum up, the value is surely on Gambia here and I would not be surprised of they were to win during the 90 minutes here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在喀麦隆巴福萨姆的Kouekong体育场，冈比亚在非洲国家杯1/8决赛中挑战冈比亚。北京时间周一晚些时候，预计这两个国家将展开一场激烈的战斗，而且可能不是非常有趣的比赛。让我们仔细看一看比赛。

一般来说，在本届世界杯的大多数比赛中，预计会出现一场得分极低的比赛。我认为这款游戏的得分甚至比博彩市场和大多数在线分析师/专家的平均得分还要低。这增加了平局的概率，从而使我们的赌注(冈比亚赢或平局)更好。与此相反的是，我认为几内亚只是非常狭窄的热门，而冈比亚再次被低估，作为一个很好的价值押注的机会!几内亚需要在与冈比亚的比赛中有更好的表现，冈比亚是今年第一次参加世界杯。他们与马鲁打成1比1的平局，并以1比0击败了毛里塔尼亚和突尼斯。他们只有20%的机会赢突尼斯，我不能说他们真的值得赢的基础上，在球场上的事件，但他们防守非常好-再一次!他们在进攻方面仍然有提升的空间，但即使他们打得和以前一样好，他们今天也有很好的机会避免失败。是的，突尼斯队是更有统治力的球队，但射门得分仍然是3-3。冈比亚在比赛的最后几分钟抓住了胜利，这一定是一个巨大的信心提升!我们必须记住，北非国家突尼斯是一支非常好的球队，以前也参加过世界杯。

几内亚从未在AFCON资格赛中输给冈比亚，但我们必须记住，冈比亚最近有所进步，而几内亚似乎并没有处于最佳状态。他们希望他们之前的比赛经验能有所帮助，但他们在过去的三场AFCON淘汰赛中都没有进球。他们在小组赛中只进了3球，实在令人失望。我对他们最近与实力相当弱的津巴布韦队的比赛尤其不满——他们1-2输了。是的，他们本应该拥有更高的控球率，但他们仍然缺乏进攻创造力，他们的防守看起来很脆弱。两队都有4次射正。根据博彩市场的预测，他们有60%的胜算，但都没有成功。我不太明白为什么他们在这里被如此重视，尽管他们有一些有天赋的球员。他们的表现令人失望，作为热门球队，他们的对手也是马拉维——尽管1-0获胜，但球队地位较低。马拉维甚至创造了更多射正的机会，平局也不是不合理的。

总而言之，冈比亚在这里的价值是肯定的，我不会对他们在这里的90分钟获胜感到惊讶。