In my opinion Fiorentina is clear favorite of today's match up and they should be able to make comfortable win.

Fiorentina have superb record at home against Genoa - they didn't lost against them at home in last 23 consecutive Serie A matches! I see huge chances for continuation of this streak today.

Both teams coming to this game in totally different mood. Both teams 3 days ago played in Copa Italia. Fiorentina played on away against strong Napoli and they were able to win after extra time 5:2. For sure that was big boost of confidence and players wants to go with momentum today. On the other hand Genoa lost 1:3 after extra time on away against Milan. For sure that was a painful loss, Genoa had a lead until 76'. In addition to that their coach Andriy Schevchenko have been kicked out from the club and atmosphere in team must be on very low level..

I believe Fiorentina as well have big advantage in fitness department. Only 3 players from today's first squad played more than 90 minutes against Napoli. On the other hand 5 players from today's Genoa first squad played more than 100 minutes against Milan. Fiorentina two the best players - Vlahovic and Bonaventura - are relatively fresh, both played less than 75 minutes against Fiorentina.

For me on the paper Genoa line up looks poor, 6 from 11 players played less than 11 matches in current Serie A season. Best player in current season (according to the ratings) Criscito comig from injury, second-best player Rovella is injured, same as best assistant Cambiaso. Third-best player Badelj (he was best Genoa player in last match) played 120 minutes against Milan and is hard to expect high quality performance from him. Fiorentina line up looks more stable, more consolidated - every player from today's first squad played at least 13 matches of current Serie A season. It's huge difference.

Genoa is very poor team at the back - they kept only one clean sheet in away matches in all competitions. They kept clean sheet against Udinese, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 1.02. On the other hand Fiorentina scored more than one goal in last 7 home matches in all competitions. I believe they are able to continue that streak today. They have second-best scorer in whole Serie A. Vlahovic scored at least one goal in 6 consecutive matches at Artemio Franchi stadium. Today he have good opportunity to score another goal front of home crowd.

Only two teams in whole league scored less goals than Genoa. 2.8 shots on target per game - Genoa is the worst team in that department. Genoa scored only 4 goals more than Fiorentina striker Vlahovic (20 against 16 goals).

Fiorentina looks like the most logical choice for today.

在我看来，佛罗伦萨显然是今天比赛的热门，他们应该能够轻松取胜。

佛罗伦萨主场对阵热那亚的战绩非常出色——他们在过去的23场意甲联赛中都没有在主场输给热那亚！我认为今天继续这种连续性的机会很大。

两支球队以完全不同的心情参加这场比赛。两支球队三天前都参加了意大利杯。佛罗伦萨客场对阵强势的那不勒斯，加时赛5:2取胜。可以肯定的是，这极大地增强了信心，球员们今天想要继续前进。另一方面，热那亚在客场对阵米兰的加时赛后以 1:3 失利。毫无疑问，这是一场痛苦的失利，热那亚一直领先到 76 分钟。除此之外，他们的教练安德烈·舍甫琴科已经被解雇，球队的气氛肯定比较糟糕。

我相信佛罗伦萨在身体方面也有很大的优势。今天主力阵容只有3名球员出场超过90对那不勒斯的比赛分钟。另一方面，来自今天热那亚一线队的 5 名球员在对阵米兰的比赛中上场时间超过 100 分钟。佛罗伦萨最好的两名球员——弗拉霍维奇和博纳文图拉——体能比较好，对佛罗伦萨的比赛都打了不到75分钟。

热那亚的阵容看起来很糟糕，11 名球员中有 6 名在本赛季意甲联赛中出场少于 11 场。本赛季最佳球员（根据收视率） Criscito comig 受伤，第二好的球员 Rovella 受伤。第三好的球员巴德利（他是上一场比赛中热那亚最好的球员）在对阵米兰的比赛中出场了 120 分钟，很难期待他有高质量的表现。佛罗伦萨的阵容看起来更稳定、更稳固——今天一线队的每一位球员都至少参加了本赛季意甲联赛的 13 场比赛。这是巨大的差异。

热那亚的后防线很差——他们在所有比赛的客场比赛中只保持了一次不失球。对阵乌迪内斯，但根据预期失球模型，他们应该失球 1.02。另一方面，佛罗伦萨近7场各项赛事主场均打入1球以上。我相信他们今天能够继续保持这种势头。他们有整个意甲联赛第二好的射手。弗拉霍维奇在阿特米奥弗兰基球场连续6场比赛至少打入一球。今天他有很好的机会在主场观众面前再进一球。

整个联赛中只有两支球队的进球数比热那亚少。场均 2.8 次射门——热那亚是最差的球队。热那亚全队只比佛罗伦萨前锋弗拉霍维奇多进 4 球（20 ：16 ）。

佛罗伦萨看起来是今天最合乎逻辑的选择。