Atletico Tucuman VS San Lorenzo

Atletico Tucuman and San Lorenzo lock horns in this Liga Profesional Clausura Group B round 13 clash at Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro in Tucuman Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is the highest tier of Argentinian football. The level of this league is pretty high by global standards - and second-best in South America, after the Brazilian Serie A. Typically for this league a low-scoring game is in the cards here. In fact, based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based model the goal expectancy here is even marginally smaller - and the probability of a draw bigger - than the bookmakers seem to estimate. Most importantly, we serious, profit-hungry bettors have a very promising betting opportunity here! Indeed, we have won six of the last seven picks betting on Liga Profesional! Let's remember that according to Transfermarkt.com, a well known-source, the visitors are the bigger team - by a big margin! However, the Transfermarkt.com values are, in my expert opinion, a little misleading here.. The Tucuman squad has an estimated market value of some 16 million euros. However, about 18-19 million would be a more accurate number. The San Lorenzo players are worth an estimated total of about 32 million. 35 million would be a more realistic number. The biggest bookmakers, with the largest stake limits, see the hosts as favourites, offering odds of around 2.45 on the home win. However, based on my sophisticated expert analysis this is a coin toss - a 50/50 match without a favourite. Indeed, we will place a +0.5 handicap bet on the visitors.

Let's also not forget that Tucuman have won only one of the last eight matches between the two teams. The teams last locked horns in April - San Lorenzo took a 1-0 home win, recording more shots. They are currently in 7th place with 16 points on their account. Yes, they do lack some individual skill and speed to the top-teams - and have scored only nine goals. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is 11.45. The San Lorenzo has a fine structure, silly individual mistakes have been rare. Tucuman, on the other hand, have grabbed 15 points - and occupy the 8th place. They have a score difference of 13:13. Tucuman have lost two of three and 4/6 their last matches. They were very disappointing in their last game, losing to Instituto 0-2 away from home. Tucuman generated only 0.28 in xG and had no big scoring chances. The hosts' numbers were 1.56 and five respectively. Before this Tucuman welcomed Platense, priced around 2.05 to win by the bookies. They won 2-0 but Platense's Lozano was sent off in the 1st half - when the score was still 0-0. The xG numbers were 0.93-0.92. Platense even recorded more total shots. Indeed, taking the red card into account, I was not impressed with Tucuman's performance.

No, San Lorenzo have not achieved good results recently but I stress that they have also had some poor luck. Indeed, in their last match they welcomed San Martin S.J, losing 0-1. However, the xG numbers were 2.34-0.95. San Lorenzo recorded 13 more total shots and allowed the visitors only one shot on goal. Indeed, San Lorenzo would have deserved to win! Before this they lost to Lanus 1-2 away from home as pretty clear underdogs - despite generating 0.65 more in xG - and recording an impressive 22 total shots! San Lorenzo also had more big scoring chances. In round 10 San Lorenzo were excellent, beating Godoy Cruz 2-0 at home. The xG numbers were 2.21-0.54. Thanks to the hosts' very solid defending the visitors failed to record a single shot on target!

GOOD LUCK!

图库曼竞技VS圣洛伦佐

北京时间周二上午，图库曼竞技和圣洛伦佐在图库曼纪念何塞菲耶罗球场进行了西甲职业联赛B组第13轮的比赛。这是阿根廷足球的最高级别。以全球标准来看，这个联赛的水平相当高，在南美洲排名第二，仅次于巴西甲级联赛。对于这个联赛来说，一场低得分的比赛在这里是可能的。事实上，根据我的复杂的、强有力的基于数据的模型，这里的进球预期甚至比博彩公司估计的还要小——平局的可能性更大。最重要的是，我们这些认真的、渴望利润的投注者在这里有一个非常有前途的投注机会！事实上，我们在过去的7次意甲选秀中赢了6次！让我们记住，根据Transfermarkt.com，一个著名的消息来源，客队是一个更大的团队-以很大的优势！然而，在我看来，Transfermarkt.com的价值在这里有点误导。据估计，图库曼队的市场价值约为1600万欧元。然而，大约1800 - 1900万是更准确的数字。据估计，圣洛伦索球员的总身价约为3200万欧元。3500万是个更现实的数字。最大的博彩公司，拥有最大的赌注限制，认为东道主是最受欢迎的，主场获胜的赔率约为2.45。然而，根据我老练的专家分析，这是一场掷硬币式的比赛——五五开，没有最喜欢的一方。事实上，我们将在客队身上下注+0.5的赔率。

我们也不要忘记，图库曼在两队之间的最近8场比赛中只赢了一场。两队上一次交锋是在4月，圣洛伦索主场1-0获胜，射门次数更多。他们目前以16分排名第7。是的，他们确实缺乏一些顶级球队的个人技术和速度，而且只进了9个球。然而，他们的预期目标数（xG）是11.45。圣洛伦佐有一个良好的结构，愚蠢的个人错误已经很少了。另一方面，图库曼已经拿到了15分，排在第8位。他们的比分差是13:13。图库曼队输掉了三场比赛中的两场，他们最近的比赛输掉了四场。他们在上一场比赛中表现得非常令人失望，客场0-2输给了Instituto。图库曼全场得分仅为0.28，没有大的得分机会。东道主的数字分别是1.56和5。在此之前，图库曼迎来了普拉坦塞，赌注在2.05左右。他们以2-0获胜，但普拉塔塞的洛萨诺在上半场被罚下，当时比分还是0-0。xG值为0.93 ~ 0.92。普拉塔塞的射门次数甚至更多。事实上，考虑到那张红牌，我对图库曼的表现并不满意。

不，圣洛伦索最近没有取得好成绩，但我强调他们也有一些运气不好。事实上，在上一场比赛中，他们欢迎了圣马丁，但以0比1输掉了比赛。而xG值为2.34 ~ 0.95。圣洛伦索总共有13次射门，只让客队射门一次。的确，圣洛伦索应该赢得比赛！在此之前，他们在客场1-2输给了拉努斯，他们显然处于劣势——尽管他们的射门比拉努斯多0.65次——而且他们总共射门22次，令人印象深刻！圣洛伦佐也有更多的得分机会。在第10轮比赛中，圣洛伦佐表现出色，在主场以2:0击败戈多伊克鲁兹。xG值为2.21 ~ 0.54。多亏了东道主非常坚固的防守，客队一球都射正了！

好运！