There’s something quite deceptive about Levante’s current form. Yes, the good feelings are there – a stylish, brave team, capable of exciting moments and big wins like the one at Oviedo. But when we dig deeper, the numbers say something else entirely. This is still a side that struggles to win football matches. Just two victories so far, and one of them came against a Girona side who finished with nine men. The other was against bottom-placed Real Oviedo. In between, we’ve seen a team that competes, yes, but also fails to control games and regularly gives away leads.

Rayo Vallecano, in contrast, may not be getting the points they deserve, but tactically and collectively they look like a much more reliable side. Iñigo Pérez has built a team with identity: disciplined, brave, and extremely competitive. Their win away at Real Sociedad before the break felt like more than just three points – it was a reward for weeks of solid football and misfortune. They’d already pushed Sevilla to the limit, held their own against Atleti, and created plenty against Barcelona. It’s a team that knows what it’s doing, especially in difficult away games like this one.

Levante will enjoy spells in possession, and they’ll push forward in numbers. That’s part of their nature under Julián Calero. But this is exactly the kind of match where Rayo can thrive. Their pressing can catch Levante in build-up, and their transitions – especially with Isi, De Frutos and Ratiu overlapping – can be lethal. Even without Álvaro García, who remains doubtful, they have options and patterns that work. De Frutos is in excellent form and, against his former club, there’s every reason to expect another decisive performance.

Levante haven’t won a single home game yet. That matters. It’s not just about the points – it speaks to a team still adapting to the demands of the top flight. They’ve competed well in moments, but the inability to manage games, to defend consistently, is worrying.

They’ve only kept two clean sheets all season – and both came in exceptional circumstances - Oviedo, the worst attack in La Liga and the team with worse offensive numbers, and Girona who received two red cards. Against a Rayo side that presses hard and exploits space, those defensive gaps could be decisive.

That said, I still want to cover the draw. Because while Rayo are the better side on paper, and in structure, we’re dealing with a team that hasn’t been clinical enough. Games they should have won, they’ve drawn or lost. It’s the only reason they’re not higher in the table. Levante, for their flaws, do create danger, especially through Etta Eyong and Carlos Álvarez, their two best players. If they get space or the crowd gets behind them, they can find moments.

But in balance, I see Rayo as the more mature side. More tactically stable, more cohesive, and with more clarity in both phases. I’m backing them to win – but taking the draw as a safety net feels like the smart angle in what should be a very open and entertaining match.

莱万特目前的状态有一些欺骗性。是的，美好的感觉就在那里——一支时尚、勇敢的球队，能够创造激动人心的时刻，赢得像在奥维耶多那样的重大胜利。但当我们深入研究时，这些数字完全是另一回事。这仍然是一支努力赢得足球比赛的球队。到目前为止只有两场胜利，其中一场是对阵赫罗纳，他们以9人结束比赛。另一场是对阵排名垫底的皇家奥维耶多。在这两者之间，我们看到了一支有竞争力的球队，但也未能控制比赛，经常失去领先优势。

相比之下，巴列卡诺可能没有得到他们应得的分数，但从战术上和整体上看，他们似乎是一支更可靠的球队。Iñigo p兼并雷斯建立了一支有个性的团队：纪律严明、勇敢、极具竞争力。他们在中场休息前客场战胜皇家社会的感觉不仅仅是三分——这是对几周稳定的足球和不幸的回报。他们已经把塞维利亚逼到了极限，在对阵马竞的比赛中保持住了自己的优势，在对阵巴塞罗那的比赛中创造了很多机会。这是一支知道自己在做什么的球队，尤其是在像这样艰难的客场比赛中。

莱万特人会享受魔咒，他们会大举进攻。这是他们在Julián Calero下的天性。但这正是雷欧能成功的比赛。他们的紧逼可以抓住莱万特的阵型，他们的换防——尤其是伊西、德弗鲁托斯和拉蒂乌重叠的时候——是致命的。即使没有Álvaro García（他仍持怀疑态度），他们也有可行的选择和模式。德弗鲁托斯状态极佳，面对他的老东家，我们有充分的理由期待他又一次决定性的表现。

莱万特还没有赢过一场主场比赛。这很重要。这不仅仅是积分的问题——这说明了这支球队仍在适应顶级联赛的要求。他们在比赛中表现得很好，但他们无法管理比赛，无法持续防守，这令人担忧。

他们整个赛季只保持了两场零封，而且都是在特殊的情况下——奥维耶多是西甲进攻最糟糕的球队，也是进攻数据最糟糕的球队，赫罗纳得到了两张红牌。面对强硬的压迫和利用空间的雷诺，这些防守缺口可能是决定性的。

尽管如此，我还是想支付抽签费用。因为虽然从理论上和结构上来说，雷诺是更好的一方，但我们面对的是一支不够冷静的球队。他们本应该赢的比赛，他们要么平了，要么输了。这是他们排名不靠前的唯一原因。尽管莱万特有缺陷，但他们确实制造了危险，尤其是他们最好的两名球员埃塔·埃永和卡洛斯Álvarez。如果他们有空间，或者人群在他们身后，他们就能找到机会。

但总的来说，我认为Rayo更成熟。在战术上更稳定，更有凝聚力，在两个阶段都更清晰。我支持他们赢球，但是把平局作为一个安全网，在这场应该非常开放和有趣的比赛中，感觉是一个聪明的角度。