Denmark v Greece

Denmark claimed an impressive 6–0 victory on Thursday at the expense of Belarus, who have become the whipping boys of the group. The goalless home draw against Scotland in September’s qualifying opener tightened the internal competition within the group, but in the bigger picture, Denmark remains the clear favorite to secure a World Cup spot as group winners.

Greece, meanwhile, suffered a painful 1–3 defeat away to Scotland on Thursday. The match was largely under Greece’s control well into the second half, but poor defending on set pieces ultimately turned the game in favor of the home side. Dropping all three points against a direct rival was, naturally, a heavy blow to Greece’s World Cup ambitions.

Denmark is roughly two classes stronger overall, even though Greece has improved under its current coaching staff with Ivan Jovanovic, and estimate the probability of a home win to be worth a bet.

Romania v Austria

Romania’s chances of finishing in the top two of the group took a serious hit during the September qualifying window, when an early two-goal lead away to Cyprus eventually turned into a 2–2 draw. The current international window is a bit easier for them, as Sunday’s match against Austria was preceded only by a home friendly against Moldova, which Romania won routinely 2–1.

Austria, meanwhile, recorded their biggest win in history on Thursday by thrashing San Marino 10–0 at home. The star of the show was Marko Arnautović, who scored four goals and for whom these qualifiers and next summer’s World Cup are likely to be his final appearances in the Austrian national team shirt.

Romania have lost to the top teams in the group but has performed at least in line with expectations. Austria is clearly the stronger side overall, but the hosts’ home advantage should not be underestimated. I estimate that the difference in overall quality is enough to justify Austria’s favorite status — one that should materialize slightly more than once in every two games.

Good luck!

丹麦vs希腊

丹麦队在周四的比赛中以6比0大胜白俄罗斯队，后者已经成为小组中的替罪羔羊。9月的预选赛首战，丹麦在主场0比0战平苏格兰，这加剧了小组内部的竞争，但从更大的角度来看，丹麦仍然是确保小组出线的热门球队。

与此同时，希腊周四在客场1-3惨败于苏格兰。比赛在下半场大部分时间都在希腊的控制之下，但在定位球上糟糕的防守最终使比赛对主队有利。在对阵直接对手的比赛中丢掉全部三分，自然是对希腊世界杯野心的沉重打击。

尽管希腊队在现任教练伊万•约万诺维奇（Ivan Jovanovic）的带领下取得了进步，但丹麦队总体上要强两个级别，他们估计主场取胜的可能性值得一赌。

罗马尼亚vs奥地利

在9月份的预选赛期间，罗马尼亚以小组前两名出线的机会受到了严重打击，一开始在客场两球领先的罗马尼亚最终以2比2战平塞浦路斯。目前的国际比赛对他们来说比较容易，因为在周日对阵奥地利的比赛之前，罗马尼亚只在主场与摩尔多瓦进行了一场友谊赛，罗马尼亚以2-1取胜。

与此同时，奥地利周四在主场以10比0大胜圣马力诺，取得了他们历史上最大的胜利。本场比赛的明星是马尔科·阿瑙托维奇，他打进4球，预选赛和明年夏天的世界杯很可能是他最后一次穿着奥地利国家队的球衣出场。

罗马尼亚在小组赛中输给了几支顶级球队，但至少表现得符合预期。奥地利显然整体实力更强，但东道主的主场优势也不容小觑。我估计整体水平的差异足以证明奥地利最受欢迎的地位——每两场比赛中应该不止一次出现这种情况。

好运！