Aston Villa VS Bologna

Bologna travel to Birmingham to challenge Aston Villa in this UEFA Champions Europa league stage round 1 clash at Villa Park early Friday morning Beijing time. This is the second-best of UEFA's three international club competitions. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a clash of good quality level by this league's standards here! Most importantly we have yet another very promising betting opportunity! Indeed, we have won five of the seven picks betting on this competition and three picks in a row. The hosts are an English team, the visitors come from Italy. I highlight that the English Premier League is, as a whole, clearly better than the Italian Serie A. In fact, it is the best league on the planet! Last season Villa came very close to (again) earning a spot in the UEFA Champions League. However, they - probably mainly because of a red card - failed to defeat Man United away from home in the last round of play. Let's not forget that they did well in the Champions League Playoffs last season, easily beating a dangerous Belgian team, Club Brugge and only being eliminated by the eventual champions, PSG. Villa, however, pushed PSG hard - even winning the 2nd leg at home. Villa have not significantly weakened for this season so they have enormous potential for improvement! They are currently only in 18th place in the league table but unlike the bookies - I will not let the standings fool me. The odds of around 1.80 on the home win are definitely too high! Villa have taken only three points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is bigger. They have netted the ball only once which reflects their lack of offensive creativity and speed - as well as passing accuracy in the key area - near the opponent's goal. However, they have a lot of (offensive) individual skill in the team. I stress that they have been unlucky in terms of expected goals (xG). The Villa defence, on the other hand, have a good structure - they have allowed only five goals. This is the same number as the current leaders, Liverpool, have conceded!

I highlight that Bologna are nothing special as a team. They have no obvious strengths. They are definitely not among the biggest clubs in the Serie A. A top-6 finish would be a surprise. They are in 11th place with six points in their pocket but their number of xG is smaller. They have both scored and allowed only three goals. However, Bologna's number of xGA is bigger. They have lost three of their last five games. However, they took a 2-1 home win over Genoa in their last game. They probably deserved the narrow win - as favourites on the betting market - having generated more in xG. However, both teams had two big scoring chances. Before this they travelled to Milan and were very outplayed by the hosts. They lost only 0-1 but AC Milan allowed them only 0.18 in xG. Bologna failed to record a single shot on goal and had no big scoring chances. Milan managed three. Villa have not lost any of their last three games in the 90 minutes of play but their last win came in August. In their most recent match they faced Sunderland away from home. It was a goalless draw - despite Villa's 71% ball possession. Both teams generated 0.99 in xG. Taking the hosts' R. Mandava's red card in the 33rd minute Villa should have won the game.. However, Sunderland performed above their normal level - defending very well as a team. Before this they faced Brentford in London - in an EFL Cup clash. Villa recorded many more total shots, shots on goal (6-3) and big scoring chances - 3-0 to be precise. They lost 1-2 after penalties but generated more in xG.

Let's also remember that Aston Villa and Bologna met last October at this same stadium - Villa took a pretty comfortable 2-0 win. They generated significantly more in expected goals (xG) and also recorded many more total shots on shots on goal. Let's remember that according to Transfermarkt.com, a well known-source, the hosts are the bigger team here - by a big margin. However, the Transfermarkt.com values are, in my expert opinion, a little misleading here.. The Bologna squad has an estimated market value of some 266 million euros. However, about 210 million would be a more realistic number! The Villa squad players are valued at a total of 547 million - which is a little too low.

GOOD LUCK!

阿斯顿维拉VS博洛尼亚

北京时间周五凌晨，博洛尼亚将做客伯明翰，与阿斯顿维拉进行欧联杯第一轮比赛。这是欧足联三场国际俱乐部比赛中第二好的。足球迷和我们这些认真的，渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场高质量的比赛，以这个联赛的标准来看！最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有前途的赌博机会！事实上，我们赢得了七次选秀中的五次，而且是连续三次。东道主是一支英格兰队，客队来自意大利。我要强调的是，作为一个整体，英超联赛显然比意甲联赛更好。事实上，它是这个星球上最好的联赛！上赛季维拉非常接近（再次）获得欧洲冠军联赛的席位。然而，他们——可能主要是因为一张红牌——在上一轮比赛中没能在客场击败曼联。我们不要忘记他们上赛季在欧冠季后赛中表现出色，轻松击败了危险的比利时球队布鲁日俱乐部，只被最终的冠军巴黎圣日耳曼淘汰。然而维拉对巴黎圣日耳曼的压力很大，甚至在主场赢下了第二回合。维拉本赛季并没有明显的削弱，所以他们有很大的提升潜力！他们目前在联赛中只排在第18位，但与博彩公司不同，我不会让排名欺骗我。主场获胜的赔率约为1.80，这绝对太高了！维拉只拿到了3分，但是他们的期望积分（xPTS）更多。他们只有一次进球，这反映了他们缺乏进攻创造力和速度，以及在对手球门附近的关键区域传球的准确性。然而，他们在球队中有很多（进攻）个人技术。我要强调的是，他们在预期目标（xG）方面一直不走运。另一方面，维拉的防守结构很好，他们只丢了5个球。这和目前领头羊利物浦的失球数是一样的！

我强调博洛尼亚作为一支球队并没有什么特别之处。他们没有明显的优势。他们绝对不是意甲联赛前6名的豪门之一。他们以6分的积分排在第11位，但他们的xG数量较少。他们都进了3球，只让对方进了3球。然而，博洛尼亚的xGA数量更大。他们最近五场比赛输了三场。然而，他们在上一场比赛中主场2-1战胜热那亚。作为博彩市场上的夺冠热门，他们可能理应获得这场险胜，因为他们在xG上赚得更多。然而，两支球队都有两次重要的得分机会。在此之前，他们去了米兰，被东道主打得很惨。他们只输了0-1，但AC米兰只给了他们0.18分。博洛尼亚没有一次射门，也没有重大进球机会。米兰打入三球。维拉最近三场比赛在90分钟内没有输过一场，但他们的最后一场胜利是在八月份。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场面对桑德兰。这是一场0比0的平局——尽管维拉71%的控球率。两个团队在xG中都生成了0.99。如果东道主曼达瓦在第33分钟被红牌罚下，比利亚应该赢得比赛。然而，桑德兰的表现超出了他们的正常水平——作为一个团队，他们的防守做得非常好。在此之前，他们在伦敦对阵布伦特福德——在一场联赛杯中。比利亚的射门次数、射正次数（6-3）和进球机会（准确地说是3-0）更多。他们在点球后1-2落败，但在上一场比赛中创造了更多机会。

让我们还记得去年10月阿斯顿维拉和博洛尼亚在同一个球场相遇——维拉以2-0轻松取胜。他们产生了更多的预期进球（xG），也记录了更多的射门次数。让我们记住，根据Transfermarkt.com，一个知名的消息来源，东道主在这里是更大的球队-以很大的优势。然而，在我看来，Transfermarkt.com的价值在这里有点误导。博洛尼亚队的市值估计约为2.66亿欧元。然而，大约2.1亿将是一个更现实的数字！维拉队球员的总价为5.47亿英镑，这有点太低了。

好运！