RAYO - CELTA

This is a match that has the scent of old-school Spanish football, two sides with a clear idea of who they are and what they want to do, clashing in one of LaLiga’s most atmospheric settings. Vallecas does not forgive weakness, and both Rayo and Celta arrive in a moment where performance is ahead of results. That makes it especially intriguing, because one of them will need to translate structure and identity into something tangible.

Rayo under Iñigo Pérez has evolved smoothly from the Iraola model, sticking to their pressing game, their verticality down the flanks and their refusal to accept defeat as long as time remains. In many ways, they are a purist’s team: 4-2-3-1, wing play, intensity everywhere, Álvaro García and De Frutos stretching the pitch and Isi always a threat if the match opens. The problem is not the clarity of the idea but the lack of efficiency. They create, they disrupt, but too often fail to kill matches. At home against Barça they had moments to do serious damage and let them pass. That inability to turn good pressure into goals keeps them in dangerous waters.

Celta, meanwhile, are a more subtle side, shaped by Claudio Giráldez’s willingness to rotate and adapt. Unlike Pérez, he rarely repeats an eleven, reading each opponent and adjusting accordingly. That can sometimes lead to disjointed starts, but it also gives Vigo a flexibility few mid-table Spanish teams can boast. With Borja Iglesias in fine form and Yago Aspas still capable of decisive contributions in shorter bursts, they carry experience in attack. Around them is a rejuvenated base of academy talent, with players like Hugo Sotelo or Javi Rodríguez earning trust. The long-term view is clear: a team to be competitive in LaLiga and continue to grow in Europe.

The tactical duel here is delicious. Rayo’s insistence on pressing high, chasing every ball, and keeping the game in the rival’s half will clash with a Celta that is most comfortable when they can string passes, lure the opposition and then exploit the gaps. Giráldez will not be afraid to switch shapes mid-game, perhaps from a back three to a four-man defence, depending on how Rayo’s wingers are hurting. Pérez will stick to intensity, trying to suffocate Celta’s build-up and force errors in areas where Isi and Álvaro can punish.

Vallecas itself is a factor. The pitch has been criticised, the dimensions are tight, and the crowd is demanding. This works in Rayo’s favour when energy levels are high, but if Celta settle on the ball and frustrate them, tension can quickly turn against the home side. In matches like this, the first goal is golden. Neither team is prolific right now, so whoever scores first has an enormous chance of at least taking a point.

Celta’s challenge is to solve their scoring issue. They generate football, they arrive, but the efficiency lags behind the flow of play. Borja Iglesias is a reliable finisher, but they need support from second-line players. If those rotations of Claudio manage to free space for midfielders arriving late, Rayo could suffer. Conversely, Rayo’s threat is direct: if Álvaro or De Frutos find space behind Celta’s full-backs, it could be devastating.

Everything points to a balanced contest. Both managers know each other, their last duels have been tight, and the two squads are evenly matched in strengths and weaknesses. But there is something about Celta’s capacity to manage games, to rotate, to hold possession, that gives them a slight edge when the game gets tense. At Vallecas it is never easy, but with Celta’s structure and Borja’s form, they have the tools to leave Madrid with something in hand.

MALLORCA - ATLETICO

Mallorca are in the middle of a crisis that has been dragging on since the beginning of the year. Four wins in all of 2025, with just twenty goals scored and thirty-eight conceded, is a disastrous balance. This team is conceding almost twice as much as it scores, and at Son Moix the atmosphere is anything but calm. The Dani Rodríguez case fractured the dressing room, Arrasate is under pressure, and the results are not arriving. Against Espanyol they managed to equalise 2–2 with a man advantage, only to collapse and lose in the final stretch. This is not a team full of confidence, but one that doubts itself at every setback.

Atlético, on the other hand, arrive after a performance at Anfield that, despite ending in defeat, served as a turning point. To come back from two goals down against the best side in Europe, in the most intimidating stadium, speaks volumes about their competitive spirit. Simeone finally has almost all his pieces back: Julián Álvarez and Hancko are fit again, Griezmann is still decisive, and the newcomers like Nico González are bringing energy and personality. The difference in quality between the two squads is enormous, but even more so in the mental state: one team is sinking, the other is resurging.

I am particularly confident because this is the type of opponent Atlético usually struggle with away from home: low block, waiting for mistakes, physical duels. And yet, I think Simeone’s men will pass the test. Why? Because the structure has improved. Against Liverpool and Villarreal, Atlético managed to dominate possession and create consistently. With Barrios, Coke and Koke linking well in midfield, with Llorente and Giuliano giving depth, and with Raspadori offering association, the team looks much more fluid. Mallorca, by contrast, live almost exclusively from Muriqi’s aerial play. If Hancko and Le Normand can control him, Mallorca run out of alternatives.

Defensively, Mallorca are fragile. Valjent and Raíllo are far from their best level, Kumbulla is still adapting, and Leo Román’s last performances in goal have generated insecurity. Mojica is a weapon going forward but leaves gaps behind, gaps that Atlético’s wingers can exploit. If you give space to Llorente or Nico, or allow Sorlot to attack crosses, the damage is almost inevitable. Atlético are stronger on the flanks and much more incisive between the lines.

Another factor is the urgency of Simeone’s side. They know this is a week of nine points, with Mallorca, Rayo and then the derby against Madrid. Dropping points in Palma would undo everything, and that awareness pushes the team to approach the game with maximum focus. I expect an Atlético that will not speculate, that will look to score early and not repeat the mistakes of Victoria or Elche, where they allowed the game to drift. Simeone himself insisted in the press conference on maintaining concentration after taking the lead. That is the pending lesson, and I think the players have understood it.

In summary, I see an Atlético superior in football, mentality, and depth. Mallorca are in free fall, with their coach doubted, their dressing room fractured, and a record that speaks for itself. Atlético, wounded but ambitious, are in a moment where they must impose themselves, and this is the ideal stage to do it. That is why, from my point of view, they are favourites here, and I trust them to take the three points at Son Moix.

雷奥-塞尔塔

这是一场带有老派西班牙足球气息的比赛，双方都清楚地知道自己是谁，他们想要做什么，在西甲最具氛围的场地之一发生冲突。巴列卡斯不会原谅自己的弱点，雷约和塞尔塔都是在表现重于结果的时候到来的。这使得它特别有趣，因为其中一个需要将结构和身份转化为有形的东西。

在Iñigo pancirez的带领下，雷诺从伊奥拉的模式进化得很顺利，坚持他们的逼抢战术，他们的侧翼垂直，只要时间还在，他们就拒绝接受失败。在很多方面，他们都是一支纯粹的球队：4-2-3-1，边路打法，无处不在的强度，Álvaro García和德弗鲁托斯拉长了球场，如果比赛开始，伊西总是一个威胁。问题不在于想法是否清晰，而在于缺乏效率。他们创造，他们破坏，但往往不能消灭对手。在主场对阵巴萨的比赛中，他们有机会造成严重的伤害，然后让对方传球。无法将良好的压力转化为目标，让他们陷入了危险的境地。

与此同时，塞尔塔是一支更加微妙的球队，克劳迪奥Giráldez愿意轮换和适应。与psamez不同的是，他很少重复11点，他会读懂每个对手并做出相应调整。这有时会导致开局脱节，但这也给了维戈灵活性，很少有西班牙中游球队可以自夸。博尔哈·伊格莱西亚斯状态良好，亚戈·阿斯帕斯在短时间内仍能做出决定性的贡献，他们在进攻方面经验丰富。在他们身边的是一群恢复了活力的青训人才，像雨果·索特洛和哈维·Rodríguez这样的球员赢得了信任。长远的目标是明确的：一支在西甲有竞争力的球队，并在欧洲继续成长。

这里的战术决斗很精彩。雷奥坚持高位逼抢，追逐每一个球，并将比赛保持在对手的半场，这将与塞尔塔发生冲突，塞尔塔最舒服的方式是串联传球，引诱对手，然后利用空隙。Giráldez不会害怕在比赛中改变阵型，也许会从三后卫变成四人防守，这取决于雷奥的边锋伤势如何。p<s:1>雷斯将坚持强度，试图扼杀塞尔塔的集结，并在Isi和Álvaro可以惩罚的地方施加错误。

瓦利卡斯本身就是一个因素。球场受到了批评，尺寸太紧，观众要求很高。当精力充沛的时候，这对雷奥很有利，但如果塞尔塔控制住球并挫败他们，紧张的气氛很快就会对主队不利。在这样的比赛中，第一个进球就是黄金。这两支球队现在都不是高产球队，所以谁先得分谁就有很大的机会至少得一分。

塞尔塔的挑战是解决他们的得分问题。他们创造足球，他们到达，但效率落后于比赛的流程。伊格莱西亚斯是一个可靠的终结者，但他们需要二线球员的支持。如果克劳迪奥的轮换能够为后腰腾出空间，那么雷奥就会遭殃。相反，雷约的威胁是直接的：如果Álvaro或德弗鲁托斯在塞尔塔的边后卫后面找到空间，那将是毁灭性的。

一切都指向一场势均力敌的竞赛。两位主教练都很了解对方，他们最近的对决非常激烈，两支球队的优势和劣势都不相上下。但是塞尔塔有能力控制比赛，轮换，控球，这让他们在比赛紧张的时候有一点优势。在巴莱加斯，这从来都不是一件容易的事，但以塞尔塔的结构和博尔哈的状态，他们有办法在离开马德里的时候有所收获。

马略卡-马竞

马略卡岛正处于一场危机之中，这场危机自今年年初以来一直在拖延。在2025年的四场胜利中，只有20个进球和38个失球，这是一个灾难性的平衡。这支球队的失球几乎是进球的两倍，在Son Moix，气氛一点也不平静。达尼Rodríguez的情况使更衣室破裂，阿拉巴萨承受着压力，而结果并没有到来。在对阵西班牙人的比赛中，他们在一人优势的情况下将比分扳平，但在最后阶段却崩溃并输球。这不是一支充满信心的球队，而是一支在每一次挫折中都怀疑自己的球队。

另一方面，亚特兰蒂斯在安菲尔德的一场演出之后抵达，尽管以失败告终，但这是一个转折点。在欧洲最好的球队面前，在最令人生畏的球场，两球落后的情况下逆转，充分说明了他们的竞争精神。西蒙尼终于找回了几乎所有的东西：Julián Álvarez和汉科都恢复了健康，格列兹曼仍然是决定性的

我特别有信心，因为这是atlassitico在客场经常遇到的对手：低挡，等待失误，身体决斗。不过，我觉得西蒙尼的人会通过考验的。为什么?因为结构改进了。在对阵利物浦和比利亚雷亚尔的比赛中，亚特兰蒂斯成功地控制住了控球权，并不断创造机会。巴里奥斯，科克和科克在中场配合得很好，略伦特和朱利亚诺提供了深度，拉斯多里提供了帮助，球队看起来更加流畅。相比之下，马略卡岛几乎完全依靠穆里奇的空中表演为生。如果汉科和勒诺曼能控制他，马洛卡就没有其他选择了。

马略卡的防守很脆弱。瓦尔延特和Raíllo还远没有达到最佳状态，昆布拉还在适应，而里奥Román最近的进球表现也让人感到不安。莫希卡是一种向前推进的武器，但在身后留下了空隙，这些空隙是亚特兰蒂斯的边锋可以利用的。如果你给略伦特或尼科空间，或者让索洛进攻传中，伤害几乎是不可避免的。atlassitico在两翼更强，在两线之间更敏锐。

另一个因素是西蒙尼方面的紧迫性。他们知道这是一个九分的星期，面对马洛卡，雷约，然后是德比对阵马德里。在帕尔马丢分会让一切都化为乌有，这种意识会促使球队以最大的注意力来对待比赛。我希望atlassitico不会猜测，会尽早得分，不会重蹈维多利亚和埃尔切的覆辙，让比赛随波而动。西蒙尼本人在新闻发布会上坚持在领先后保持专注。这是即将到来的教训，我认为球员们已经明白了这一点。

总之，我认为亚特兰蒂斯在足球、心态和深度上都有优势。马洛卡正在自由落体，他们的教练受到质疑，他们的更衣室破裂，他们的记录不言自明。受伤但野心勃勃的亚特兰蒂斯人，正处在一个他们必须强加自己的时刻，而这正是他们这样做的理想阶段。这就是为什么，从我的角度来看，他们在这里是最受欢迎的，我相信他们能在圣城拿到三分。