When I look at Valencia’s meeting with Athletic Club at Mestalla this weekend, I can’t help but feel this is the perfect moment to trust the home side not to lose. The reason is simple: Valencia come from a humiliation at the Camp Nou, a 6–0 collapse that was embarrassing on every level. And precisely because of that, I expect a furious reaction. This team has already shown in recent seasons that when Barcelona crushes them, they tend to bounce back immediately at Mestalla. After the 7–1 of January against Barça, they beat Celta 2–1 at home. One month later, after a 0–5 in the Copa against the culés as well, they went on to win 2–0 against Leganés. This isn’t coincidence; it’s character. Mestalla is still a fortress when the players feel hurt, and that is the exact context we have here.

What makes me confident is not just the emotional aspect, but also the footballing side. Corberán has the full squad available, no injuries, no suspensions. That gives him options to reset, especially in midfield where against Barcelona his set-up was far too open and exposed. With players like Javi Guerra and Santamaría anchoring, and the energy of Diego López and Danjuma on the wings, Valencia have the tools to press high, to attack with verticality, and to feed Hugo Duro, who has a habit of hurting Athletic. The young core of Guerra, López, and Tárrega has good chemistry with Corberán, and last season they built a 10-match unbeaten run that showed the direction this team can take when confidence is intact. At Mestalla this season they’ve already drawn with Real Sociedad and beaten Getafe; all four points so far have come at home.

Athletic arrive with quality, no doubt. Valverde has built a competitive side, but the timing of this game is poor for them. They are coming off a European night in London against Arsenal. Yes, they played Tuesday, but history tells us that this team struggles away from home after Europa or Champions matches. Their intensity usually drops, especially when Valverde doesn’t rotate heavily because his bench is limited. That’s a key point: the starting XI is strong, but beyond that the resources are thin. And right now they’re missing their most decisive player, Nico Williams. Without him, the attack loses unpredictability and width. Iñaki has not started well, his form is poor, and when both brothers aren’t sharp, Athletic’s forward line looks far less dangerous.

There is also the Laporte factor. He has returned but isn’t ready to be a starter, so the defence remains reliant on Vivian and Paredes, who are solid but not unbreakable. The team has been taking points, but often without dominating matches—own goals, penalties, and strokes of luck have boosted their tally. Against strong, energetic opponents, those margins shrink. And let’s not forget Valverde himself won’t be on the bench due to suspension. For a coach who reads games as well as anyone in Spain, that absence is not trivial.

I also think the Mestalla atmosphere will matter. The supporters are furious after the debacle in Barcelona, but at home they also tend to back the side with intensity when they see effort. Corberán has spoken about using the “pain as competitive energy,” and I believe that mindset, together with the stadium pushing, can make Valencia much more aggressive and proactive than they were at Camp Nou.

So my reasoning is clear: Valencia at Mestalla, wounded but with pride, facing an Athletic side that comes from Europe, missing Nico, with a thin squad and a coach banned from the touchline. I don’t expect an easy game, because Athletic are a well-drilled side with Sancet capable of breaking lines and Berenguer or Guruzeta always dangerous in the box. But in this specific context, I strongly fancy Valencia to avoid defeat. It is the type of night where they can remind everyone why they should finish in the top half this season, if not even higher.

当我看到这个周末瓦伦西亚在梅斯塔利亚与竞技俱乐部的比赛时，我不禁觉得这是一个完美的时刻，相信主队不会输球。原因很简单：瓦伦西亚在诺坎普经历了一场耻辱，一场0 - 6的惨败在各个层面上都令人尴尬。正因为如此，我预计会有激烈的反应。这支球队在最近几个赛季已经证明，当巴塞罗那击败他们时，他们往往会在梅斯塔利亚立即反弹。在1月7-1击败巴萨之后，他们在主场2-1击败塞尔塔。一个月后，他们又以0-5的比分击败了库尔甘萨斯，然后又以2-0战胜了莱甘萨斯。这不是巧合；它的性格。当球员感到受伤时，梅斯塔利亚仍然是一座堡垒，这就是我们在这里的确切背景。

让我自信的不仅仅是情感方面，还有足球方面。Corberán有完整的阵容，没有受伤，没有停赛。这给了他重新调整的机会，尤其是在中场，在对阵巴萨的比赛中，他的阵型太过开放和暴露。有了像哈维·格拉和Santamaría这样的球员，以及迭戈López和丹朱马在边路的能量，瓦伦西亚有了高压、垂直进攻的工具，并为雨果·杜罗提供了食物，杜罗习惯于伤害竞技队。年轻的核心格拉、López和Tárrega与Corberán有着良好的化学反应，上个赛季他们创造了10场不败的战绩，这表明了这支球队在信心不变的情况下可以采取的方向。本赛季在梅斯塔利亚，他们已经战平皇家社会，击败赫塔菲；到目前为止，所有四分都是在主场取得的。

毫无疑问，运动员的到来是有质量的。巴尔韦德已经建立了一支有竞争力的球队，但这场比赛的时机对他们来说很糟糕。他们刚刚结束了在伦敦对阵阿森纳的欧洲之夜。是的，他们周二踢了比赛，但历史告诉我们，这支球队在欧联杯或冠军杯比赛后会在客场挣扎。他们的强度通常会下降，尤其是当巴尔韦德没有大量轮换的时候，因为他的替补阵容有限。这是关键的一点：首发阵容很强大，但除此之外资源匮乏。现在他们失去了最具决定性的球员，尼科·威廉姆斯。没有他，进攻就失去了不可预测性和广度。Iñaki开始不太好，他的状态很差，当兄弟俩都不锋利时，竞技的锋线看起来不那么危险。

还有拉波特因素。他已经回来了，但还没有准备好成为首发，所以后防线仍然依赖维维安和帕雷德斯，他们很稳固，但也不是牢不可破的。这支球队一直在得分，但往往没有在比赛中占据主导地位——乌龙球、点球和运气都提高了他们的得分。面对强大而充满活力的对手，这些优势会缩小。别忘了巴尔韦德自己也不会因为停赛而坐在替补席上。对于一个像西班牙任何人一样看比赛的教练来说，缺席并不是微不足道的。

我认为梅斯塔利亚的气氛也很重要。球迷们对巴塞罗那的惨败感到愤怒，但在主场，当他们看到球队的努力时，他们也倾向于强烈支持球队。Corberán曾经说过用“痛苦作为竞争的能量”，我相信这种心态，加上球场的推动，可以让瓦伦西亚比在诺坎普更具侵略性和主动性。

所以我的理由很清楚：在梅斯塔利亚的瓦伦西亚，受伤但带着骄傲，面对一支来自欧洲的竞技球队，缺少尼科，阵容单一化，教练被禁赛。我并不期待一场轻松的比赛，因为竞技是一支训练有素的球队，桑切特有突破的能力，贝伦格尔和古鲁泽塔在禁区里总是很危险。但在这种特殊情况下，我强烈希望瓦伦西亚能够避免失败。这是一个夜晚，他们可以提醒每个人，为什么他们本赛季应该在上半区结束，如果不是更高的话。