The title might suggest that I go for Bilbao for whom this is lot more important game in their lives, but no.

We had this match previewed not a long ago, here,

https://expert.hongcai.163.com/index.html#/details/1007987

and it went like this:

Bilbao almost dominated in the starting minutes and they exploited the game plan of Koeman where both Pedri and Griezmann were too high up on the pitch, but after the goal even Koeman wised up, Barcelona midfield went a bit more defensive and balanced, and it wall all Barcelona ever since, once more orchestrated by brilliant Leo Messi. The 2nd Bilbao goal was a rare error from him, Messi gave a poor horizontal pass on his own half which was cut short by Muniain, but as the chart shows Bilbao offered basically no danger from 15 minutes on.

For Bilbao this was their last league game as their trip to face Atletico got postponed due snow, so they were the fresher team in the semifinals where they did beat Real Madrid by 2-1 in a very eventful game where Raul Garcia scored twice, and Real hit the post 3 times!

Not taking anything away from Bilbao, but apart from the mediocre Real performance Bilbao had their share of good luck, and there are no Garcia goals tonight as he is past his sell by date as the statistics of this season show. 1 goal in 914 minutes played.

I am equally doubtful over other Bilbao strikers too as mentioned before, the main threat remains to be Muniain but Koeman should know how to deal with by now.

Barcelona have played two games since trip to Bilbao. They had a comfortable 0-4 win away at Granada, but in their semifinal vs Sociedad they were under pressure thoughout the game, but were saved by ter Stegen in the end to reach the final. There was no Messi, and it has to be remembered that especially on their good days Sociedad are almost impossible to beat.

Now Barcelona have had 3 full days to recover instead of Bilbao's 2, it is scientifically researched area how it effects, and the short answer is that it is unfair set-up as two days is not enough for full recovery!

Below are the lineups and ratings from one decent analytics website from the match 11 days ago. If they so wish, both can field the same lineups tonight and probably will apart from 1 or 2 tactical changes. There is no question in mind about which manager is the better one, it has to be Bilbao's Marcelino, but Barca have been improving all season especially defensively and currently they are performing well, and have the world's outstanding player Messi starting again, fully fit and rested last time just as a precaution.

I am very confident of a Barcelona superiority that I go for -1.5 win!

双方的前一场比赛，毕尔巴鄂在开场几分钟几乎占据了统治地位，他们利用了科曼的比赛计划，佩德罗和格里兹曼都在球场上站位太靠前，但在科曼进球后，巴塞罗那的中场变得更加防守和平衡，这堵墙从那以后就一直笼罩着巴塞罗那，再一次由才华横溢的梅西精心策划。第二粒毕尔巴鄂的进球是一个罕见的失误，梅西在自己的半场难得一见的水平传球被穆尼恩截短，但正如图表所示，毕尔巴鄂15分钟后基本没有任何威胁进攻。

对于毕尔巴鄂来说，这是他们的最后一场联赛比赛，他们与马竞的比赛因为下雪而推迟，所以他们他们状态更好，在那场非常重要的比赛中，他们以2-1击败了皇家马德里，劳尔加西亚攻入2球!

这对毕尔巴鄂没有任何影响，但除了平庸的表现，毕尔巴鄂有他们的好运，今晚加西亚没有进球，因为他的状态不稳定。比赛914分钟进了1球。

我同样怀疑毕尔巴鄂的其他前锋，主要的威胁仍然是穆尼亚，但科曼现在应该知道如何对付他们了。

巴塞罗那自从客场挑战毕尔巴鄂以来已经踢了两场比赛。他们在客场0-4轻松战胜格拉纳达，但在半决赛对阵社会的比赛中，他们整场比赛都处于压力之下，但最后被门将拯救进入决赛。那场比赛梅西因伤缺席。

巴塞罗那有3天的时间来恢复，而不是毕尔巴鄂的2天，，简而言之，这是不公平的因素，因为两天球员不足以完全恢复!

下图比较权威的网站公布的首发预测及球员均分。如果他们愿意的话，今晚他们都可以用同样的阵容，而且可能会有1到2个战术上的改变。毋庸置疑，毕尔巴鄂的马塞利诺是最好的教练，但巴萨整个赛季都在提高防守能力，现在他们表现得很好，世界上最优秀的球员梅西再次上场，完全康复，上次休息只是为了预防。

我对巴塞罗那的优势非常有信心，我希望球队能都获胜并有更多净胜球!