NORTH MACEDONIA - BELGIUM

Belgium’s 2026 World Cup qualifying journey kicks off in Skopje against a North Macedonia side punching above their historical weight, but unlikely to carry the knock-out power required to floor a Red Devils squad with new direction and still brimming with elite talent. While the hosts come in with momentum and belief, Belgium simply possess more weapons, more pedigree, and now, under Rudi Garcia, a fresh intent to put recent frustrations firmly behind them.

North Macedonia arrive with two games already under their belt — a comfortable 3-0 against Liechtenstein followed by a dramatic 1-1 draw with Wales where they conceded heartbreakingly in the 96th minute. That said, they’re now unbeaten in eight matches and have turned their home into something of a fortress. Milevski has built a competitive, well-organised group, led by seasoned names like Bardhi and Elmas, and carried by the goalscoring form of Bojan Miovski. Their 3-4-1-2 system prioritises compactness and counters, and given the gap in individual quality, we can expect a very conservative approach here — a low block with quick counters down the flanks, particularly through Alioski’s left side.

But it’s one thing to hold off Wales, and quite another to contain Belgium. Despite a rocky patch in the Nations League and an uninspired Euros under Tedesco, this side is still laced with game-changers — and Rudi Garcia now has the job of rediscovering their sharp edge. There’s no Courtois, but with Kevin De Bruyne fully fit, Romelu Lukaku in scoring form, and Jérémy Doku looking more unpredictable than ever, Belgium enter this tie not just as favourites, but as a side under pressure to deliver a statement.

Garcia is expected to stick with a 4-3-3, which gives them clear superiority in central areas. Onana will sit deepest, allowing Tielemans to shuttle and De Bruyne to find spaces between the lines — crucial against Macedonia’s likely deep block. The key here will be patience and precision: slow the tempo when needed, but strike quickly when space opens, especially through the flanks. Doku’s one-on-one threat and Trossard’s creativity on the left should stretch Macedonia’s back line, giving Lukaku room to attack from central positions. If Belgium can isolate their wingers against Macedonia’s back three or force mismatches with their wing-backs, the game can tip quickly.

Lukaku, of course, will be the focal point. He enters with 88 goals for his country, and fresh off a title-winning season at Napoli. He’s the kind of striker that feasts on moments like these: away from home, against stubborn defences, when you need a moment of power or precision. North Macedonia will double up on him, but if De Bruyne and Doku deliver quality service, it may not matter.

North Macedonia’s tactical shape and current form mean they won’t be brushed aside easily. They’ll frustrate and foul when needed, and Bardhi’s dead-ball quality is a genuine threat. But the Belgian defence — younger, quicker, and more mobile now — should cope. Faes and Debast might lack the experience of their predecessors, but they bring a new dimension to Belgium’s defensive play, more suited to higher lines and quicker recovery.

In the end, this is the kind of match Belgium must win if they’re serious about rebuilding their credibility on the international stage. The names on paper are too good, and the need for a strong start too urgent. Macedonia will scrap, and the Skopje crowd will roar, but man for man, system for system, and moment for moment, Belgium should come through. Expect control, expect chances — and expect Romelu Lukaku to remind everyone why he’s still the heartbeat of this Belgian attack.

NORWAY - ITALY

There’s no doubt this is Norway’s moment — and they know it. When the whistle blows in Oslo on Friday evening, the home side will walk onto the pitch not as plucky underdogs, but as serious contenders. Group I leaders, two wins from two, and a front line led by Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard: the Norwegians finally look ready to take their place among Europe’s elite. And as Italy stumble into town, bruised, depleted and burdened with expectation, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the hosts get something here — in fact, it’s the most logical outcome.

Ståle Solbakken’s team have been building to this point. Their 5-0 hammering of Moldova was routine, but the 4-2 win over Israel away from home showed resilience and control. This side isn’t just raw talent anymore; it’s organised, balanced and has a clear identity. Haaland continues to be an unstoppable force, scoring in both qualifiers to take his tally to 40 goals in just 41 international caps. Ødegaard, meanwhile, has emerged as the technical leader, dictating play from deep and linking brilliantly with wide players and forwards alike. Sander Berge and Patrick Berg give structure in midfield, and Alexander Sørloth provides a different threat next to Haaland — it’s a group with cohesion, variety and form.

Italy, in contrast, arrive in disarray. No World Cup since 2014, and having missed the last two editions, they begin this campaign already chasing the group leaders. And that chase could grow longer very quickly. Luciano Spalletti’s squad is riddled with absentees — Francesco Acerbi refused his call-up, Gabbia, Calafiori, Buongiorno, Locatelli and Kean are all unavailable. It’s not just the names missing, but the knock-on effect: this is a patched-up backline, short on chemistry and experience, facing one of the most devastating attacks in international football.

Spalletti has hinted at a three-man defence, likely Bastoni, Gatti and Di Lorenzo, with Cambiaso and Udogie operating as wing-backs. It’s a system that demands understanding and rhythm, and that’s hard to develop with so many fresh faces. In midfield, Tonali and Barella will do the heavy lifting, but the control Italy usually expects to exert may be compromised under Norwegian pressure. Up front, Raspadori and Retegui look like the chosen pairing, but neither has shown consistent cutting edge at this level.

Italy’s form is patchy at best. They haven't won any of their last three, and the recent 3-3 draw in Dortmund — where they trailed Germany 3-0 at half time — typified their fragility. The psychological weight of those past World Cup failures still hangs over this group, and for all their declarations of "freedom" and "no pressure," the reality is that Italy cannot afford a loss. Norway, meanwhile, can play with just enough freedom and just enough fire. A draw suits them, a win puts them out of sight — that dynamic, and the home advantage, plays perfectly into their hands.

The numbers back it too. Norway have won four on the bounce, scoring 18 in the process. They’ve lost just once in their last nine home World Cup qualifiers, and haven’t lost to anyone at home in over a year. Italy may hold the historical edge in head-to-head meetings, but this version of Norway — modern, confident, and led by two Premier League stars — is a completely different beast.

It’s hard to imagine Italy’s makeshift defence keeping a clean sheet, especially with Haaland and Sørloth bullying the backline and Ødegaard pulling strings. But equally, Italy still possess enough technical quality in midfield to wrestle control for periods, and Donnarumma’s presence in goal can keep them in games they have no right to survive. Expect them to scrap — and likely do enough to salvage a point. But this is Norway’s game to shape, and if they can find the finishing touch, it might even be their game to take.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

北马其顿-比利时

比利时的2026年世界杯预选赛之旅将在斯科普里打响，对手是一支比历史实力更强的北马其顿球队，但他们不太可能拥有击败红魔所需的淘汰赛力量，这支球队有新的方向，仍然充满了精英人才。当东道主带着气势和信念来的时候，比利时只是拥有更多的武器，更多的血统，现在，在鲁迪·加西亚的带领下，一个新的意图将最近的挫折牢牢地抛在身后。

北马其顿带着两场比赛来到这里——轻松3-0战胜列支敦士登，然后戏剧性地1-1战平威尔士，并在第96分钟令人心碎地失球。也就是说，他们现在已经8场比赛保持不败，并且把他们的主场变成了一座堡垒。米洛夫斯基建立了一支有竞争力、组织良好的队伍，由巴尔迪和埃尔马斯等经验丰富的球员领导，并以博扬·米洛夫斯基的进球形式为主力。他们的3-4-1-2阵型注重紧凑性和反击，考虑到个人能力的差距，我们可以期待一个非常保守的阵型——低挡，侧翼快速反击，特别是通过阿利奥斯基的左路。

但牵制威尔士是一回事，牵制比利时则完全是另一回事。尽管在国家联赛中经历了一段艰难的时期，在特德斯科的带领下，这支球队在欧洲杯上表现平平，但这支球队仍然充满了改变比赛的力量——鲁迪·加西亚现在的任务是重新发现他们的锋线。没有库尔图瓦，但凯文·德布鲁因完全康复，罗梅卢·卢卡库处于进球状态，多库看起来比以往任何时候都更加不可预测，比利时不仅是最受欢迎的球队，而且是在压力下发表声明的球队。

加西亚预计会坚持4-3-3阵型，这将使他们在中路拥有明显的优势。奥纳纳将坐到最深处，让蒂勒曼斯可以穿梭，德布鲁因可以在两线之间找到空间——这对马其顿可能的纵深封锁至关重要。这里的关键是耐心和精准：在需要的时候放慢节奏，但是在有空间的时候迅速进攻，尤其是在侧翼。多库的一对一威胁和特罗萨尔在左路的创造性应该会拉长马其顿的后防线，给卢卡库从中路进攻的空间。如果比利时能在马其顿的三后卫面前孤立他们的边锋，或者迫使他们的边后卫出现不匹配，比赛就会迅速逆转。

当然，卢卡库将是焦点。他带着88粒进球进入国家队，刚刚在那不勒斯赢得了一个赛季的冠军。他是那种享受这种时刻的前锋：在客场，面对顽固的防守，当你需要力量或精确的时刻。北马其顿将加倍打击他，但如果德布鲁因和多库提供高质量的服务，这可能无关紧要。

北马其顿的战术形态和目前的状态意味着他们不会轻易被淘汰。他们会在需要的时候制造挫败和犯规，巴蒂的死球能力是真正的威胁。但是比利时的后防线——现在更年轻、更快、更灵活——应该可以应付。费斯和德巴斯特可能缺乏他们前辈的经验，但他们为比利时的防守带来了新的维度，更适合于更高的线和更快的恢复。

最后，如果比利时想要在国际舞台上重建信誉，就必须赢得这场比赛。纸面上的名字太好了，需要一个强劲的开端太迫切了。马其顿会放弃，斯科普里的人群会咆哮，但人对人，制度对制度，时刻对时刻，比利时应该会通过。期待控制，期待机会，期待卢卡库提醒所有人，为什么他仍然是比利时进攻的心脏。

挪威-意大利

毫无疑问，这是挪威的时刻——他们也知道这一点。当周五晚上奥斯陆的哨声响起时，主队将不再是勇敢的失败者，而是真正的竞争者。第一组领先，两战两胜，由哈兰德和马丁领衔的锋线Ødegaard：挪威人终于准备好了在欧洲精英球队中占据一席之地。当意大利跌跌撞撞地来到这座城市，伤痕累累，疲惫不堪，背负着沉重的期望时，看到东道主在这里有所收获并不令人震惊——事实上，这是最合乎逻辑的结果。

斯塔特勒·索尔巴肯的团队已经建立了这一点。他们5-0大胜摩尔多瓦是家常便饭，但客场4-2战胜以色列则展现了韧性和控制力。这方面的人才不再是天生的；它是有组织的，平衡的，有一个明确的身份。哈兰德仍然是一股不可阻挡的力量，在两场预选赛中都有进球，这使他在41场国家队比赛中打进了40球。与此同时，Ødegaard以t的形式出现

他是技术领袖，从后场指挥比赛，与边路球员和前锋都有出色的联系。桑德·贝尔热和帕特里克·伯格在中场提供了结构，亚历山大·斯罗思在哈兰德旁边提供了不同的威胁——这是一个具有凝聚力、多样性和形式的团队。

相比之下，意大利则是一片混乱。自2014年以来，他们就没有参加过世界杯，在错过了前两届世界杯之后，他们已经开始追逐小组头名了。这种追逐可能会很快变得更长。卢西亚诺·斯帕莱蒂的球队缺阵，阿塞比拒绝征召，加比亚、卡拉菲奥里、博翁焦尔诺、洛卡特利和基恩都不在名单上。这不仅仅是缺位的问题，还有连锁反应：这是一支经过修补的后防线，缺乏化学反应和经验，面临着国际足坛最具破坏性的攻击之一。

斯帕莱蒂暗示了一个三人防线，可能是巴斯托尼、加蒂和迪洛伦佐，坎比亚索和乌多吉担任边后卫。这是一个需要理解和节奏的体系，有这么多新面孔很难发展。在中场，托纳利和巴雷拉将承担重任，但在挪威的压力下，意大利通常希望发挥的控制力可能会打折扣。锋线上，拉斯多里和雷特吉看起来是最佳组合，但两人都没有在这个级别上表现出一贯的锋线优势。

意大利队的表现充其量也就是参差不齐。最近三场比赛他们一场也没赢，最近3-3战平多特蒙德，半场3-0落后德国，这体现了他们的脆弱。过去世界杯失败的心理负担仍然笼罩着这支球队，尽管他们宣称“自由”和“没有压力”，但现实是意大利输不起。与此同时，挪威可以用足够的自由和足够的火力来比赛。一场平局适合他们，一场胜利让他们淡出人们的视线——这种动态，以及主场优势，对他们来说是完美的。

数据也证明了这一点。挪威在反弹中赢得了四场比赛，在此过程中打入了18球。在世界杯预选赛的近九场主场比赛中，他们只输了一场，并且在一年多的时间里没有在主场输给任何人。意大利可能在正面交锋中拥有历史优势，但这个版本的挪威——现代、自信，由两位英超球星领导——是一个完全不同的野兽。

很难想象意大利的临时防线能保持不失球，尤其是在哈兰德和罗罗斯强攻后防线和Ødegaard幕后操纵的情况下。但同样，意大利在中场仍然拥有足够的技术实力，可以在一段时间内争夺控制权，多纳鲁马在球门的存在可以让他们在他们无权生存的比赛中保持活力。预计他们会放弃，而且很可能会尽力挽回一分。但这是挪威队的比赛，如果他们能找到最后的点睛之笔，这甚至可能是他们的比赛。