Brighton vs Brentford

Brighton host Brentford for this English Premier League round 19 Boxing Day battle at Amex Stadium. The schedule in the following weeks is grueling and particularly challenging for many smaller teams with limited squads - especially in terms of bringing quality options/replacements from the bench or from the u23 team. The newly promoted Brentford, with one of the "cheapest" squads in terms of the total salary amount of all the players combined and also the total market value of the players as listed on the respected German website Transfermarkt.com, are definitely one of these teams. However, Brentford are, in my opinion, better a team on the pitch than the market value of the team's players alone indicates. They have played very well as a team, especially - typically for the promoted teams - at the start of the season. Let's take a closer look at this match betting-wise..

Indeed, the short Christmas break is now over and most teams are in action in the traditional Boxing Day action. Unfortunately, the Omicron variant is wreaking havoc in the United Kingdom too, and as a result a few matches scheduled for Sunday have already been postponed and many teams have quite a few absentees because of Corona and/or injuries. There is a risk that this match might not be played at all.. Thumbs up for the event to take place of course - a pretty high quality and entertaining match is on the cards here in the most competitive football league in the World! I rate the hosts, Brighton as not that clearly but still better than the visitors in my power ratings - on a scale from 1-100. The power ratings illustrate a team's raw class compared to other teams in the league. I rate Brighton as the 10th best team in this league - about the same rating as in my pre-season analysis. They are currently in the 13th place with 20 points in the bank. The visitors, on the other hand, have scored the same number of points but are placed in the 12th place. However, whilst I have slightly raised their rating from the start of the season, I still rate them only as the 15th best team in this league and seem to get too much respect by the betting market.

Neither team have been in terrific form lately - neither on the pitch or result-wise. In my opinion the betting market has reacted too strongly on the hosts' lack of wins recently - resulting in them being under-rated, hence offering us a chance to place a lucrative bet on them. I do admit they have not been at their best lately but they have also had some bad luck in many of their matches.. For example, in their most recent match on the 15th of this month they lost to Wolves at home 0-1 despite having 59% ball possession and more scoring attempts, attacks, dangerous attacks and completed passes. The expected goals numbers were 1.30 - 1.05 in their favor. They would have most definitely deserved at least a draw! I see Brighton having a lot of room for improvement during the the rest of the season, especially offensively. Lack of creativity and especially insufficient scoring have, once again, been a problem for the hosts this season.. The hosts have scored just 14 goals but the expected goals statistic suggest they should have realistically scored 21-22 goals. Brentford, on the other hand, have indeed won two of their latest five matches but I still think they have been in decline lately in terms of their performances on the pitch, and the home wins over the third worst team in the league, Watford (2-1 through a very late penalty kick goal) and hugely under-performing - or dare I say "messy" Everton (1-0) on the 28th of November do not excite me that much.. Brighton, encouragingly, are expected to have five players returning for this match. Shane Duffy, Pascal Gross and Maupay may all feature in the starting lineup in this early Monday morning Beijing time clash, whereas Adam Webster and Danny Welbeck are expected to be selected by the manager among the replacements.

To sum up, a pretty balanced match is expected but the hosts still have, with substantial home advantage, some 54-55% chance of winning. Brighton -0.5 goals handicap is the smart choice here for my fans and myself!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

英超联赛节礼日第19轮比赛，布莱顿主场迎战布伦特福德。接下来几周的赛程是非常艰苦的，对于许多阵容有限的小球队来说尤其具有挑战性——特别是从板凳上或从u23队带来高质量的替代者。新近晋升的布伦特福德，是德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com上所有球员薪金总额和球员总市值最便宜的球队之一，绝对是这些球队中的一员。然而，在我看来，布伦特福德是一支在球场上比球队球员的市场价值更好的球队。作为一支球队，他们踢得非常好，尤其是在赛季开始的时候，对于那些晋级的球队来说。让我们仔细看看这场比赛的赌注。

事实上，短暂的圣诞假期现在已经结束，大多数球队都在进行传统的节礼日活动。不幸的是，欧米克隆的变种也在英国造成了严重的破坏，因此，一些原定于周日的比赛已经被推迟，许多球队也因为科罗娜和/或受伤而缺席。这场比赛有可能无法进行的风险。当然，为这次活动的发生竖起大拇指——一场相当高质量和娱乐性的比赛将在这个世界上最具竞争力的足球联赛中进行!我对东道主布莱顿的评级不是很明确，但在我的评级中仍然比游客好——从1到100打分。实力评级显示了一支球队与联盟中其他球队相比的原始级别。我把布莱顿评为联赛第十强的球队——和我在季前赛分析中的排名差不多。目前，他们在银行方面的得分为20分，排在第13位。另一方面，客队也获得了相同的分数，但排在第12位。然而，虽然从赛季开始我稍微提高了他们的评级，但我仍然把他们评为联赛中第15强的球队，似乎在博彩市场上得到了太多的尊重。

这两支球队最近的状态都不太好——无论是在球场上还是在比赛结果方面。在我看来，博彩市场对东道主最近缺乏胜利的反应过于强烈——导致他们被低估，从而为我们提供了一个在他们身上押下有利可图的赌注的机会。我承认他们最近并没有处于最佳状态，但是他们在很多比赛中也有一些坏运气。例如，在本月15日的最近一场比赛中，他们在主场0-1输给了狼队，尽管他们有59%的控球权，更多的得分尝试，进攻，危险的进攻和完成的传球。他们的预期进球数是1.30 - 1.05。他们至少应该得到一场平局!我认为布莱顿在赛季剩下的时间里还有很多提升的空间，尤其是在进攻方面。缺乏创造力，尤其是得分不足，再一次成为了这个赛季东道主的问题。东道主只打进了14个进球，但预期进球数据表明，他们实际上应该打进21-22个进球。另一方面，布伦特福德在最近的五场比赛中确实赢了两场，但我仍然认为他们最近在球场上的表现有所下降，主场击败了联赛第三差的球队，沃特福德(通过一个非常晚的点球，比分2-1)和表现不佳的埃弗顿(11月28日的1-0)并没有让我那么兴奋。令人鼓舞的是，布莱顿预计将有五名球员回来参加这场比赛。沙恩·达菲、帕斯卡尔·格罗斯和莫佩可能都将出现在北京时间周一凌晨的这场比赛的首发阵容中，而亚当·韦伯斯特和丹尼·维尔贝克预计将被主教练选中作为替补。