Marseille host Reims for this Round 19 of French Ligue 1 early Thursday morning Beijing time. French Ligue 1 is probably the 5th best league in Europe, after English Pre mier League, German Bundesliga, Spanish La Liga and Italian Serie A. The biggest clubs in Europe follow this league closely and often find promising talents from Ligue 1. The level of football is better than one might think based the much smaller media coverage than that of the top4 leagues mentioned above. As for this match I expect a little more goals than most experts or journalists and do believe it will be entertaining to watch. Let's take a look at this clash betting-wise...

I see a pretty clear difference in class here and that fact that Marseille are a much stronger team can also be seen looking at the standings. Marseille are currently in second place, 13 points behind clearly the best team in this league, PSG. However, they have played one match less than the superstars from Paris. Their goal difference is good 25:14 and they have lost just three matches so far. I do realize that Marseille have been a little lucky in terms of expected points, grabbing some three points more than they would have deserved. However, it seems the betting market still slightly under-values Marseille, which is a bit surprising as this is not common with this kind of expected points statistics.. In terms of expected goals they have not really been lucky or unlucky but have allowed less goals than they should have. A good example of Marseille being a little lucky was the match against Strasbourg on the 12th of Decemeber when they stole all three points away from home with a 2-1 victory despite creating only 0.8 in expected goals whereas the hosts' number was 1.60. Nevertheless, these statistics do not change the fact the Marseille have played very well and I have raised their power rating as the season has progressed! In fact I still see room for improvement for them  - especially offensively. They have not been that great at home result-wise this season but are historically a very good home team and do have enthusiastic fans.

Reims have played pretty well lately - most certainly above their true class. They are current in 14th place in the standings with 22 points in the bank. Interestingly, their final position was also 14th at the end of last season. However, I rate them only as the 16th best team in this league in my power ratings that illustrate the teams' overall class and do not see much room for improvement for them. Overall they have been slightly lucky this season in terms of expected points. A good example of this the completely underserved 2-1 win over Lyon on the 1st of December.  Indeed, they are currently over-valued by the betting market and would probably need some luck here to avoid defeat!

To sum up, Marseille are very clear favorites and my pick here is the hosts with the -0.5 goals handicap.