Lorient host one of the richest and most famous football clubs in the World, PSG, at Stade du Moustoir for this French Round 19 of French Ligue 1 early Thursday morning Beijing time. French Ligue 1 is in my opinion the 5th best league in Europe, after English Pre mier League, German Bundesliga, Spanish La Liga and Italian Serie A. The biggest clubs in Europe follow this league closely and often find promising young talents from Ligue 1. The level of football is better than one might think based the much smaller media coverage than that of the top4 leagues mentioned above. As for this match I expect a little less goals than most experts or journalists but do believe it will be an entertaining to watch. Let's take a look at this battle betting-wise...

Taking a look at the standings this pick might seem weird for some people but the situation is not normal here.. PSG are missing an incredibly big number of players here! Both Marco Verratti and Kylian Mbappe received their fifth yellow cards this season against Monaco and were given a one-match suspension. Neymar remains sidelined due to an ankle injury. German Julian Draxler is still suffering from a muscle problem and is once again out. Mendes and Bernat are also out and the list of missing guys is actually even longer. Of course PSG do have quality players to replace this absentees but who is able to replace Mbappe or Neymar? It is not possible!- Whilst I agree with the the betting market and many other experts that PSG are, even in with all the missing players, very clear favorites to win I think they are clearly over-valued. I simply rate PSG's replacements lower than most analysts or perhaps the betting market.. Abdou Diallo is set to fill in at left-back, joining  former Real Madrid legend Sergio Ramos, Marquinhos and Hakimi in front of Navas. As for Lorient Fabien Lemoine and Jeremy Morel are out for sure and a few more players might be missing too. 

PSG are, of course, the best team in this league. However, in terms of expected points PSG have been extremely lucky season grabbing over seven points more than they would have deserved! As a result they have been, are over-valued here -  and most likely will be over-valued in the future as well. Their super-classy team has also scored about two goals more than they would have deserved in terms of expected goals. Lorient most definitely have not been in good shape lately. The host in a fierce fight against relegation and currently in 19th place and one point away from safety. However, they have been unlucky and would have deserved 2.80 points more than they have in the bank in terms of expected points. A good example of bad luck was on the 12th of December when they lost 1-4 to Metz despite creating more more in goal expectancy!

Lorient +1.5 goals is my pick here with a good chance of winning!