Arsenal VS Paris Saint Germain

Arsenal and PSG lock horns in this UEFA Champions League semi-final 1st leg clash at Emirates Stadium in London very early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is the best of UEFA's three international competitions. Football fans and us serious and us profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of extremely high level as both teams are, in my expert opinion. in the top-7 on the planet in terms of pure class. Arsenal have been, once again, the second-best team in the English Premier League this season.. They have grabbed 67 points and their number of expected points is 63.78. They have netted the ball 63 times and have conceded 29 goals. Arsenal's number of expected goals (xG) is 64.03 and number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 34.32. They finished in 3rd place in the Champions League – having grabbed 19 points. A total of 36 teams played in the league phase. However Arsenal's number of xPTS was “only” smaller. They netted the ball 16 times and allowed three goals. Their number of xGA was somewhat bigger though.. Yes, Arsenal beat PSG 2-0 at home in October. They deserved to win but the final score flatters Arsenal to some extent.. Indeed, PSG had 62% ball possession and they also recorded more total shots (10-7) and corner kicks – 5-1. Arsenal generated 0.41 more in xG though. However, Arsenal had less injury issues at the time than they do now. Indeed, they still do not have an actual striker to field here! Indeed, Havertz, Calafiori, Gabriel, Gabriel Jesus, Partey and Tomiyasu are all injured.. These absences hurt Arsenal significantly perhaps even more than the bookies or recreational bettors realize..

Especially the erratic Polish defender, Kiwior, should not be in the starting 11 in games this big! Saka, their most important player, has played a few games after (yet another) injury but is surely not at his best yet.. In the last round of the Playoffs Arsenal beat Real Madrid 5-1 on aggregate and were tactically strong. Kiwior, however, almost "cost" his team in the 1st leg in London.. The score was still 0-0 when he made a big mistake - and a few minor mistakes in this game too.. Even so, Arsenal took a 3-0 win over Real, mainly thanks to D. Rice's two fine free kick goals. However, Real – who had not really been playing well by their standards for over a month – were a big disappointment – especially because of disorganized defending - including one of the free kick goals.. Indeed, super stars Vinicius Jr. and Mbappe – and at times even Bellingham - definitely did not seem to be 100% focused/willing to defend.. Some other Real players, too, could have done more in terms of both pressing and protecting their own goal. Arsenal recorded three more total shots – 12-9 and generated 1.02 more in xG. Indeed, the final score flatters Arsenal to some extent.. Arsenal do deserve some credit for the fine win but despite the better-than-usual performanceI will not give this performance/win too much emphasis -  as Real were such a disappointment.. the 2nd leg was unarguably a brilliant tactical performance from Arsenal but Real were - again – lame and did not even seem to really believe in another “remontada” - an epic comeback (at home) from a big deficit. Arsenal shut down the Real offense with solid defending.  The match was – as a whole – pretty balanced. In their last match Arsenal were priced around 1.40 to win at home against Crystal Palace By the bookies but it was a 2-2 draw. The visitors generated even more in xG - 2.32-1.54. They also had more total shots.. Both teams had four big scoring chances. Both teams' managers did - ahead of very important matches -  some squad rotation though.. Before this Arsenal beat Ipswich 4-0 on the road.  I want to emphasize that many of the Ipswich players seemed to be a little depressed - as realistically speaking they had no chance to avoid relegation.. I also want to remind my fans that Ipswich L. Davis was sent off in the 32nd minute already.. Arsenal's performance was good but I do not give this win too much emphasis.. Indeed, Ipswich are a very poor team and PSG are “from another galaxy” as an opponent. After defeating Real at home Arsenal were toothless – and had to settle for a 1-1 draw with a mediocre team, Brentford. Arsenal were, of course, very clear favourites on the betting market, Both teams had only one big shot on goal - Arsenal recorded one more shot on goal – though. They generated only 0.39 more in xG.

Let's be clear - PSG have been even more dominant than usual in the French Ligue 1, the 5th-best league on the planet! They have lost only one of the 31 Ligue 1 games – winning 24! Moreover, they have not lost any away games in this league. PSG have grabbed a stunning 78 goals and their number of xPTS is only marginally smaller. They have scored an impressive 84 goals – but their number of xG is 97.12! I want to highlight that PSG, a pretty young team, are hugely better now than last autumn – when losing in to Arsenal in London. Indeed, (for example) Barcola, Dembele, Vitinha, Doue and the incredibly skilled and creative Georgian, K. Kvaratshkhelia – who joined the team from Napoli in January played very well together - all even defend hard - when needed. This was often not the case when PSG had Messi, Neymar and Mbappe a few years ago. They also have an excellent head coach in Luis Enrique - and a fine team spirit as well! Arsenal's M. Arteta, too, is a good manager but is more inexperienced at this stage of the competition..

In their last game PSG lost to Nice 1-3 at home – despite generating a huge 4.03 in xG. Nice's number was 1.23! PSG recorded over 30 total shots and a whopping nine big scoring chances! Let's remember that Nice are a  good team, currently in 6th place in the Ligue 1.. Before this PSG had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Nantes away from home. The xG numbers were 2.43-0.63 in PSG's favour though.  Before this PSG beat Le Havre 2-1 at home – recording 2.84 more in xG than the visitors. In the last round of the Champions League they eliminated Aston Villa, a strong English team, 5-4 on aggregate. The 2nd leg was pretty balanced in terms of xG. In the 1st leg PSG were pretty dominant! They recorded 29 total shots - allowing only two shots on target. They also generated much more in xG than Villa. In the first round of Playoffs PSG crushed Brest 10-0 on aggregate! In the 2nd round of the Playoffs PSG upset the number one favourites to win the league, Liverpool. At home PSG played very well - especially at home – despite – almost incredibly - losing 0-1! They recorded 25 more total shots and 1.63 more in xG than Liverpool! However, as they do not have an elite (actual) striker - like Man City's E. Haaland - they simply could not net the ball.. Liverpool's goalkeeper, Alisson Becker, also made a few excellent saves in this game in Paris.. PSG, however, proved their class and mental strength in the 2nd leg - winning 1-0 at Anfield (90 mins) - brilliantly - and fully deservedly deservedly - eliminated Arne Slot's men after penalties. Let's not forget that Liverpool have been clearly the best team in the Premier League this season and won the championship last weekend!

To sum up, yes at home Arsenal are the favourites here – even with the depleted squad - taking into account the somewhat average home advantage.. I expect a pretty entertaining game as both teams want to have/keep the ball, have many fine offensive players - and are now willing to “just defend”.. With the expected lineups PSG are the better team but Arsenal are still the favourites to win – but only by a thin margin. The current odds of around 2.15 – offered by the biggest bookies on the home win - are much too short.. Consequently we will place a +0.5 goals handicap bet on PSG..

GOOD LUCK!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

阿森纳VS巴黎圣日耳曼

北京时间周二凌晨，阿森纳和巴黎圣日耳曼将在伦敦酋长球场展开欧冠半决赛首回合对决。这是欧足联三届国际赛事中最好的一届。在我的专家看来，足球迷和我们这些认真的、渴望利润的投注者可以期待一场高水平的比赛，因为两支球队都是如此。就纯粹的等级而言，在全球排名前七。阿森纳本赛季再一次成为英超第二好的球队。他们拿到了67分，他们的预期分数是63.78分。他们有63次进球，丢了29个球。阿森纳的预期进球数（xG）为64.03，预期失球数（xGA）为34.32。他们在欧冠联赛中获得了19分，排名第三。共有36支球队参加了联赛阶段的比赛。然而，阿森纳的xPTS数量“只是”少了一些。他们射门16次，丢了3个球。不过他们的xGA数量要大一些。是的，阿森纳去年10月在主场2-0击败了巴黎圣日耳曼。他们理应获胜，但最后的比分在某种程度上让阿森纳感到高兴。事实上，巴黎圣日耳曼有62%的控球率，他们也有更多的射门（10胜7负）和角球（5胜1负）。不过阿森纳在xG的收入多了0.41。然而，阿森纳当时的伤病问题比现在要少。事实上，他们在这里仍然没有一个真正的前锋！的确，哈弗茨、卡拉菲奥里、加布里埃尔、加布里埃尔·耶苏斯、帕蒂和富康都受伤了。这些缺阵对阿森纳的伤害可能比博彩公司或娱乐投注者意识到的要大得多。

尤其是不稳定的波兰后卫基维尔，不应该在这么大的比赛中出现在首发11人名单上！坂坂，他们最重要的球员，在（又一次）受伤后打了几场比赛，但肯定还没有达到最佳状态。在最后一轮的季后赛中，阿森纳以总比分5-1击败了皇家马德里，他们的战术很强大。然而，Kiwior在伦敦的第一回合几乎“毁掉”了他的球队。比分还是0-0的时候，他犯了一个大错误，这场比赛也犯了一些小错误。即便如此，阿森纳还是以3-0战胜了皇马，这主要要归功于D. Rice的两粒漂亮的任意球。然而，皇马——一个多月来没有真正发挥出他们的水准——非常令人失望——特别是因为防守混乱——包括其中一个任意球。事实上，超级巨星小维尼修斯和姆巴佩——有时甚至贝灵汉——似乎并没有百分之百地专注于防守。其他一些皇马球员也可以在压制和保护自己的球门方面做得更多。阿森纳在上一季又有3次射门，12-9，创造了1.02个进球。的确，最终的比分在某种程度上让阿森纳感到高兴。阿森纳的胜利确实值得赞扬，但尽管表现比平时好，我不会给这个表现/胜利太多的强调，因为皇马是如此令人失望。毋庸置疑，第二回合是阿森纳出色的战术表现，但皇马——再一次——蹩脚，甚至似乎不相信另一个“雷蒙塔达”——在主场大比分落后的情况下史诗般的逆转。阿森纳用坚实的防守压制了皇马的进攻。比赛总体上是相当平衡的。在上一场比赛中，博彩公司对阿森纳主场战胜水晶宫的赔率估计在1.40左右，但结果是2比2战平。访问者在xG - 2.32-1.54中产生的数据甚至更多。他们的总投篮次数也更多。两支球队都有四次得分机会。两支球队的主教练都做了——在非常重要的比赛之前——一些阵容轮换。在此之前，阿森纳客场4-0击败伊普斯维奇。我想强调的是，伊普斯维奇的许多球员看起来都有点沮丧——现实地说，他们没有机会保级。我还想提醒我的球迷，伊普斯维奇戴维斯在第32分钟就被罚下了。阿森纳的表现很好，但我不会给这场胜利太多的强调。事实上，伊普斯维奇是一支非常糟糕的球队，而巴黎圣日耳曼则是“来自另一个星系”的对手。在主场击败皇马后，阿森纳毫无实力，只能和一支平庸的球队布伦特福德1-1逼平。当然，阿森纳在博彩市场上是非常受欢迎的，两支球队都只有一次射正，尽管阿森纳的射正次数更多。它们在xG中只多生成0.39个。

让我们明确一点——巴黎圣日耳曼在法甲这个世界上排名第五的联赛中比平时更有统治力！他们在31场法甲比赛中只输了一场，赢了24场！此外，他们并没有输

联赛中任何客场比赛。巴黎圣日耳曼取得了惊人的78个进球，而他们的xpt数量只是稍微少一点。他们打进了令人印象深刻的84球，但他们的xG数是97.12！我想强调的是，巴黎圣日耳曼，一支非常年轻的球队，现在比去年秋天在伦敦输给阿森纳的时候要好得多。事实上，（例如）巴科拉、登贝莱、维金哈、杜埃和技术精湛、富有创造力的格鲁吉亚人K.克瓦拉茨赫利亚——他在一月份从那不勒斯加盟球队——在一起踢得非常好——甚至在需要的时候都很努力地防守。几年前，当巴黎圣日耳曼拥有梅西、内马尔和姆巴佩时，情况往往不是这样。他们还有一个优秀的主教练路易斯·恩里克，还有一个优秀的团队精神！阿森纳的阿尔特塔也是一名优秀的教练，但在这个阶段的比赛中，他缺乏经验。

在上一场比赛中，PSG主场1-3不敌尼斯，尽管他们在比赛中取得了4.03的进球。尼斯的数字是1.23！巴黎圣日耳曼总共有超过30次射门和9次进球机会！让我们记住尼斯是一支优秀的球队，目前在法甲排名第六。在此之前，巴黎圣日耳曼不得不在客场1-1战平南特。xG的数据是2.43-0.63，对PSG有利。在此之前，巴黎圣日耳曼主场2-1击败勒阿弗尔，比客队多出2.84个进球。在上一轮的冠军联赛中，他们以总比分5-4淘汰了英格兰强队阿斯顿维拉。第二腿在xG方面很平衡。第一回合巴黎圣日耳曼占据了绝对优势！他们总共射门29次，只有2次射正。他们在xG的收益也远高于Villa。在季后赛第一轮，PSG以总比分10-0击败了布雷斯特！在季后赛第二轮，巴黎圣日耳曼击败了联赛冠军的头号热门利物浦。在主场，巴黎圣日耳曼踢得非常好——尤其是在主场——尽管——几乎令人难以置信地——0-1输了！他们的射门总数比利物浦多25次，在xG上比利物浦多1.63次！然而，由于他们没有像曼城哈兰德那样的精英前锋，他们根本无法将球打进网中。利物浦门将贝克尔在巴黎的比赛中也做出了几次精彩的扑救。然而，巴黎圣日耳曼在第二回合证明了他们的水平和精神力量——在安菲尔德1-0获胜（90分钟）——出色地——并且完全当之无愧地——在点球后淘汰了阿恩·斯洛特的人。让我们不要忘记利物浦显然是本赛季英超最好的球队，并且在上周末赢得了冠军！

综上所述，在主场，阿森纳是最受欢迎的球队——即使阵容已经耗尽——考虑到平均的主场优势。我期待一场非常有趣的比赛，因为两支球队都想要控球，都有很多优秀的进攻球员，而且现在愿意“只是防守”。在预期的阵容中，巴黎圣日耳曼是一支更好的球队，但阿森纳仍然是夺冠的热门球队——但只是微弱的优势。目前的赔率约为2.15——由最大的博彩公司提供的主场获胜的赔率——太短了。因此，我们将对巴黎圣日耳曼下注+0.5个进球。

好运！